Bank Indonesia (BI) estimates that retail sales performance in January 2026 is expected to increase year-on-year.
This is reflected in the January 2026 Real Sales Index (IPR) which is estimated to grow by 7.9 percent (yoy).
BI Communication Department Executive Director Ramdan Denny said the retail sales performance was mainly supported by the growth of the Cultural and Recreational Goods, Food, Beverage, and Tobacco Group, as well as the Clothing Subgroup.
"On a monthly basis, retail sales in January 2026 are estimated to have contracted by 0.6 percent (mtm) in line with the normalization of public consumption after the National Religious Holiday (HBKN) Christmas and New Year," he said in an official statement, quoted Tuesday, February 10.
However, he said the contraction was lower than the contraction in the same period last year of 4.7 percent (mtm).
Meanwhile, in December 2025, IPR grew by 3.5 percent (yoy) mainly supported by the growth in sales of Spare Parts and Accessories, Food, Beverages and Tobacco, as well as Cultural and Recreational Goods.
On a monthly basis, retail sales in December 2025 grew by 3.1 percent (mtm), higher than the growth in the previous month of 1.5 percent (mtm).
He said the increase was driven by the performance of the majority of groups, especially Information and Communication Equipment, Cultural and Recreational Goods, Spare Parts and Accessories, as well as Food, Beverages and Tobacco in line with the increase in public demand during the Christmas and New Year HBKN.
In terms of prices, he continued, the pressure of inflation in the next three and six months, namely March and June 2026, is expected to increase.
"This is reflected in the General Price Expectation Index (IEH) in March and June 2026 which was recorded at 175.7 and 156.3, higher than the IEH in the previous period of 168.6 and 154.5," he explained.
Meanwhile, he added that the increase was driven by expectations of price increases in the 1447 H Idulfitri HBKN period.
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