Airlangga Predicts Economy to Grow Higher in the Fourth Quarter of 2025

Coordinating Minister for the Economy Airlangga Hartarto (third from right) attends a press conference at Wisma Danantara, Jakarta, Saturday, January 31, 2026. (ANTARA/Imamatul Silfia)

JAKARTA - Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto said that economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be higher than in the third quarter of 2025 which was recorded at 5.04 on an annual basis (year-on-year/yoy).

"Next week, Thursday, February 5, the growth (of the economy in the fourth quarter of 2025) is expected to be greater than the growth in the third quarter," he said in Jakarta, Saturday.

He said this showed that the macroeconomic conditions and the fundamentals of the national economy were quite strong.

He also ensured that the inflation rate in January 2026 would remain within the safe limit targeted in the State Budget (APBN).

"Monday tomorrow (2/2) will be announced by BPS (Central Statistics Agency) the level of inflation in January (2026) and it is confirmed that this inflation rate is still within the range according to the State Budget, namely the range of 2.5 plus minus 1 percent," said Airlangga.

He stated that the maintenance of the inflation rate in January 2026 continued the positive achievement in December 2025, with the inflation rate recorded at 2.92 percent year-on-year.

In addition, he conveyed that the national foreign exchange reserves until December 2025 were still strong, namely worth 156.5 billion US dollars (Rp2.63 trillion, exchange rate as of Friday (30/1) = Rp16,807 per US dollar), or equivalent to 6.2 months of import sufficiency.

Meanwhile, the fiscal deficit is still maintained at the limit of 3 percent, banking credit grew 9.6 percent year-on-year, third-party funds (DPK) increased 13.83 percent year-on-year, and the capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of the national banking sector is still recorded as strong at 25.87 percent as of December 2025.

"Then the debt-to-GDP ratio is still below the 60 percent limit, namely 40 percent, and if we look at the rating from our country from Investment Grade, both from Moody's (rating) Baa2, then Fitch (rating) BBB," said Airlangga Hartarto.