JAKARTA - Community shopping activities still show an increasing trend at the end of 2025, even though the growth rate has begun to slow down after passing the peak of the Christmas and New Year (Nataru) moments.
Bank Mandiri recorded the Mandiri Spending Index (MSI) reaching level 354.5 as of December 28, 2025, with an increase of 0.6 percent on a weekly basis (week on week).
"Spending grew positively even though it was not as high as the previous week (4.4 percent wow) which was the peak of Nataru spending," quoted in the report, Tuesday, January 6.
In terms of regions, the increase in spending was mainly driven by Sumatra which grew 1.1 percent (wow), followed by Java 0.9 percent, Maluku-Papua 0.6 percent, and Bali-Nusa Tenggara 0.2 percent.
In contrast, shopping activity in Kalimantan and Sulawesi experienced contraction, down 1.4 percent (wow) and 0.1 percent (wow).
From the perspective of categories, the leisure and consumer goods sectors are the main support for consumption growth. Historically, these two groups have consistently been the shopping engines during the long holiday period in 2022 to 2024.
A similar trend was again seen during the 2025 Nataru holiday where the increase in leisure spending was supported by the growth of the hospitality sector by 9.3 percent (wow) and beauty products which increased by 10.0 percent (wow).
Meanwhile, growth in consumer goods was driven by a surge in fashion spending of 10.5 percent (wow), followed by an increase in dining-out activities of 7.2 percent (wow).
On the other hand, Bank Mandiri also observed a change in people's behavior in managing finances and as of December 31, 2025, the savings index for the lower and upper groups was recorded as decreasing, while the middle group actually increased.
The savings index for the lower group was at 72.4, down 0.71 points compared to November. Meanwhile, the upper group recorded an index of 92.0, down 1.64 points. On the other hand, the middle group increased 0.49 points to 101.2.
This pattern indicates that the increase in spending by the lower group is partly financed from savings, while the middle group tends to hold back consumption, reflected by their increasing savings.
"This behavior can be read as a signal of preparation for the Ramadan period in February 2026," he wrote.
Entering the beginning of 2026, Bank Mandiri projects that community consumption will remain in a strong condition and this optimism is supported by various government programs and stimuli, as well as the realization of state spending which is expected to be more optimal in the second year of the new government.
"Community consumption is expected to grow high, especially in the first quarter of 2026 in line with the Ramadan-Lebaran momentum," he said.
However, the sustainability of consumption in the long term depends very much on the ability of the economy to create quality and sustainable employment throughout 2026, in order to strengthen people's income and support purchasing power.
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