JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate on Tuesday, December 23, 2025 is predicted to weaken against the US dollar.
To note, quoting Bloomberg, on Monday, December 22, the spot rupiah exchange rate closed down 0.16 percent to Rp16,777 per US dollar.
Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of the Bank Indonesia (BI) closed down 0.23 percent at a price level of Rp16,773 per US dollar.
Money market observer Ibrahim Assuaibi said that the increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East region were also a factor in driving up world oil prices.
He said this followed weekend reports that Israel was planning to brief the United States on new plans to attack Iran.
Ibrahim added that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to meet with US President Donald Trump at the end of December.
The meeting is expected to discuss further steps against Iran, amid concerns over the country's ballistic missile development and nuclear program.
"The renewed tensions in the Middle East could disrupt some oil production in the region, although it is still unclear whether plans for further action against Iran will continue," he said in a statement, quoted Tuesday, December 23.
On the other hand, he added that market participants also pay attention to the release of the inflation data of the consumer price index (CPI) which is scheduled to be released on Thursday.
According to him, global geopolitical uncertainty is increasing after reports that the United States is preparing to board a third tanker in Venezuelan offshore waters, amid the warming of relations between Washington and Caracas.
"Trump has stepped up his surveillance of Venezuela, accusing the country of using oil money to fund drug shipments and illegal immigration to the United States. Trump last week ordered a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers traveling to and from the country, and has also increased the possibility of a ground campaign against the South American country," he explained.
In addition to geopolitical issues, Ibrahim said investors will also analyze a number of important economic data, including the average four-week change in ADP employment, third-quarter economic growth, October durable goods orders data, and industrial production figures for the October and November periods.
Meanwhile, from within the country, economists assess that Indonesia's economy in the future still faces major challenges, both from global conditions and domestic factors.
However, the opportunity for economic growth remains open even though it is faced with quite heavy external and internal pressures.
For information, a number of international institutions including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) project that the global economic condition in 2026 will not be better than 2025.
He said that the slowdown in the economy of Indonesia's main trading partners, the increasing uncertainty of international trade, and global geopolitical dynamics need to be seriously anticipated.
Ibrahim said the challenges came from the weakening of the purchasing power of the middle class, the potential for food inflation, and the decline in foreign investment outside the downstream sector.
In addition, he said that the impact of natural disasters in the Sumatra region was also considered to have a significant impact on the national economy.
"For example, the disaster factor in Sumatra is quite significant in influencing the achievement of economic growth. If we look at the experience of the 2004 Aceh tsunami, the economic contraction until 2009, especially if the disaster in three provinces, it needs to be more seriously addressed," he explained.
Considering these various factors, Ibrahim said that Indonesia's economic growth in 2026 is estimated to be in the range of 4.9 to 5.1 percent.
To encourage growth above 5 percent, it is necessary to strengthen the manufacturing and services sectors, increase the effectiveness of economic stimulus, and improve fiscal governance.
Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will move fluctuatio but will close weaker on Tuesday, December 23, 2025 in the price range of Rp16,770-Rp16,810 per US dollar.
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