Indonesia's Economic Growth 2026 Estimated To Reach 5.2 Percent, UI Economist: Government Policy On The Right Track

University of Indonesia Senior Economist Fithra Faisal Hastiadi. (Photo: Aris Nurjani/VOI)

JAKARTA - Senior Economist of the University of Indonesia, Fithra Faisal Hastiadi, projects that economic growth in 2026 will be in the range of 5.1 percent to 5.2 percent.

He assessed that the government's steps, especially fiscal policy, have succeeded in strengthening positive expectations of economic actors, as reflected in several market indicators that show optimism, one of which is the Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) which is targeted at 7,800 at the beginning of this year, almost reaching 9,000.

"Now it's even close to 9,000, the end of the year is most likely up to 9,000. That means it reflects positive sentiment from business actors," he said after the media briefing: optimism for Indonesia's economic growth 2026, Thursday, December 11.

Fithra added that economic growth is also stable above 5 percent, inflation is maintained below 3 percent, and the Fed's 25-base-point interest rate decrease opens up opportunities for Bank Indonesia to make similar cuts.

"If we look at the development, especially in the second semester, it is more promising, yes, in the context of positive sentiment," he said.

In addition, he added that the Consumer Confidence Index has continued to increase in the last two months, from 121 to 124, which showed the strengthening of potential demand towards the fourth quarter of 2025 until the first quarter of 2026.

"So from that point of view, government policies should be on the right track, it's just a matter of how to maintain continuity, the continuity of the government's policies that are right on target and also able to then either encourage demand or encourage from the supply side it increases the potential of the industry so that it can create new economic spaces," said Fithra.

However, he added that for 2026, the government's target of 5.4 percent is still facing challenges, including the carryover effect of disasters in Sumatra.

However, according to him, with the right and fast intervention, the negative impact can be minimized so that the economy can return to normal in 2026.