Towards The End Of 2025, The Ministry Of Finance Is Aware Of The Turmoil Of Food Prices Due To The Rainy Season

Food prices (photo: dock. Antara)

JAKARTA - The Ministry of Finance (Kemenkeu) is wary of potential price increases during the rainy season which can disrupt food production and have an impact on inflation in December 2025.

Director General of Economic Strategy and Fiscal Affairs of the Ministry of Finance Febrio Kacaribu said that inflation in November 2025 fell to 2.72 percent (yoy), lower than October which reached 2.86 percent (yoy).

He added that the decline was in line with the easing of pressure on the volatile food group which weakened to 5.48 percent (yoy) from the previous 6.59 percent (yoy).

"This improvement is supported by various stabilizations of food prices that have been consistently carried out so that several commodity prices have begun to decline, such as rice, red chili and chicken meat. Even so, the government continues to anticipate price fluctuations in line with the entering of the rainy season which can have an impact on food production," he said in an official statement, Tuesday, December 2.

Meanwhile, core inflation is moving at the level of 2.36 percent (yoy) which is claimed to reflect that people's purchasing power is maintained. Meanwhile, Administered Price (AP) inflation slightly increased to 1.58 percent (yoy) from 1.45 percent (yoy) influenced by the increase in air transportation rates as demand increases.

Febrio emphasized that the government will maintain the momentum of economic recovery through strengthening export competitiveness and ensuring adequacy in domestic supply, especially food, to maintain price stability.

He added that the government continues to pay close attention to the dynamics of the global economy and prepares steps to continue to encourage increased competitiveness of national export products, the sustainability of downstream natural resources, and diversification of key trading partners through various international trade agreements.

In addition, Febrio said the government would also ensure the availability of food supplies for the community ahead of Christmas and New Year (Nataru) 2025/2026, including in the provision to meet the needs of government priority programs in the midst of weather disturbance challenges.

"Various steps have been taken by the government to anticipate price fluctuations due to extreme weather, including through market operations, stock strengthening, food reserves and price intervention," he explained.

He said the national economy was still on a positive track, as reflected in several indicators such as manufacturing PMI which remained in the expansion phase, trade balance surplus, and maintained inflation. This is supported by strong domestic demand.

"We continue to strengthen economic growth through directed policies, including the fourth quarter-2025 stimulus, as well as encourage added-value exports and maintain labor-intensive sector resilience to optimize contributions to the national economy," he said.

As is known, Indonesia's Manufacturing PMI was recorded as expansive in November 2025 at the level of 53.3. A significant increase in domestic demand is the main driving factor that also supports increased production, employment and purchasing activities towards the end of the year.

Meanwhile, the trade balance recorded an impressive surplus of 35.9 billion US dollars or grew 44.1 percent (ctc) during the January-October 2025 period. This was mainly contributed by a surplus in the non-oil and gas sector worth 51.5 billion US dollars.

"With this achievement, Indonesia is increasingly showing the resilience of its external sector and an increasingly strategic role in global trade," he concluded.