State Revenue From Kakao Is Predicted To Remain IDR 200 Billion Until The End Of 2025

Intermediate Expert Analysts of the PNBP Strategy Directorate General of Economic and Fiscal Strategy at the Ministry of Finance Nurlaidi (right). (Photo: Aris Nurjani/VOI)

BALI - The Ministry of Finance (Kemenkeu) estimates that state revenues from cocoa commodities will remain in the range of Rp200 billion until the end of 2025, although since October 2025 export levy schemes have changed.

Intermediate Expert Directorate of Strategy of PNBP Directorate General of Economic and Fiscal Strategy of the Ministry of Finance Nurlaidi explained that the projected non-tax revenue of the plantation sector is still supported by global cocoa prices that survive at the level of 5,000'6,000 US dollars per tonne, well above the threshold of 3,500 US dollars.

With this price, the output fee (BK) of 7.5 percent and export levies (PE) of 7.5 percent will still be applied according to the new rules that have been in effect since October 22, 2025.

"So from January to September (2025) yesterday, we still got Rp150 billion. But because in October (2025) it was broken down to an exit fee and a PE to 7.5 percent each, the PE starting on 22 (October) was only Rp48 million," he told the media crew after the presentation of the Kakao Contribution to the State Budget and the Economy, Monday, November 24.

He added that the trend of acceptance until the end of the year will not change much, with the average BK revenue of around Rp. 10 12 billion per month, the total BK throughout 2025 is estimated to reach Rp. 190200 billion, while PE is only around Rp. 70 million.

"Until the end of 2025, the estimated outlook may still remain at Rp200 billion in total," he explained.

Lebih lanjut, Nurlaidi menilai bahwa prospek penerimaan negara dari kakao pada 2026 kemungkinan tidak akan jauh berbeda, selama tarif BK dan PE masing-masing 7,5 persen diterapkan penuh mulai Januari 2026.

Dia menambahkan, dengan asumsi harga kakao tetap bergerak di atas 3.500 dolar AS per ton, penerimaan 2026 diperkirakan akan sejalan dengan capaian tahun sebelumnya.

Furthermore, Nurlaidi considered that the prospect of state revenue from cocoa in 2026 would likely not be much different, as long as the BK and PE rates were fully implemented from January 2026, respectively.

He added, assuming the price of cocoa continues to move above 3,500 US dollars per ton, the 2026 receipt is expected to be in line with the previous year's achievement.

"Later, if the price is still that much, the projected price will still be stable, I think. It's still above 3,500 US dollars, right. That means it's still IDR 200 billion too," he said.