The Rupiah Is Predicted To Be Under Pressure Ahead Of The Weekend, The US Policy Cermati Market

US and Rupiah dollars (Photo: dock. Antara)

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Friday, November 14, 2025 is predicted to weaken against the United States (US) dollar.

To note, citing Bloomberg, on Thursday, November 13, the rupiah spot exchange closed down 0.14 percent to the level of Rp. 16,717 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed down 0.14 percent at a price level of Rp. 16,722 per US dollar.

Money market observer Ibrahim Assuaibi explained that the US House of Representatives has passed a bill that paved the way for government funding and ended the longest government shutdown in history, with President Donald Trump now ready to sign the bill into law.

"The bill, which will maintain government funding until at least January 30, is ratified with 222 votes compared to 209, with 216 Republicans and six Democratic Party members supporting the bill," he said in his statement, quoted Friday, November 14.

He added that the ratification of the bill helped ease uncertainty against US fuel demand, given that the government's shutdown had led to thousands of flight cancellations.

According to him, the end of the closure also allowed the release of official US economic data, so that the market gained new clarity regarding the country with the largest fuel consumption in the world.

Ibrahim also highlighted the differences in views of Federal Reserve officials regarding the potential reduction in interest rates amid inflation concerns.

"Fed Governor Stephen Miran described the US monetary policy as too strict, especially as he believes easing housing inflation will ease price pressure. Meanwhile, Fed Atlanta president Raphael Bostic said on Wednesday he would rather keep the interest rate as it is today until there is clear evidence that inflation is returning to the target of 2 percent of the Fed," he explained.

Meanwhile, from within the country, the Government targets a deficit in the 2026 State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) of 2.68 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). However, this target is above the safe limit set in the 2025 2029 Ministry of Finance' performance target, which is in the range of 2.45 percent to 2.53 percent of GDP for 2026.

Even the outlook for the 2025 State Budget deficit of 2.78 percent has also crossed the safe limit of 2.53 percent of GDP. This provision is contained in the Minister of Finance Regulation (PMK) Number 70 of 2025 concerning the Strategic Plan of the Ministry of Finance 2025 2029.

For 2026, the APBN deficit is set at IDR 689.1 trillion or 2.68 percent of GDP or higher than the initial target in the 2026 RAPBN which is IDR 638.8 trillion or 2.48 percent of GDP. The target deficit is safe for 2027 in the range of 2.35 2.5 percent of GDP, then 2.322.50 percent in 2028, and 2.24 2.5 percent in 2029.

Although the ratio of the APBN deficit to GDP is an indicator of adaptive fiscal policy and encourages economic transformation, the Ministry of Finance does not specify the basis for determining the safe boundary.

Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but close lower in trading Friday, November 14, 2025, in the price range of Rp. 16,730 - Rp. 16,770 per US dollar.