Rupiah Predicted Weakening, Market Depressed Uncertainty The Fed And US Politics

US and Rupiah (intermediate) Dollars

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Thursday, November 13, 2025 is predicted to weaken against the United States (US) dollar.

To note, citing Bloomberg, on Wednesday, November 12, the rupiah spot exchange closed down 0.14 percent to the level of Rp. 16,717 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed down 0.14 percent at a price level of Rp. 16,722 per US dollar.

According to money market observer Ibrahim Assuaibi, the uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve (The Fed)'s plan to again lower interest rates helped reduce gold prices, while the US dollar strengthened in Asian trading sessions.

"The market is also watching the Supreme Court's examination of US President Donald Trump's trade rates, although the ruling seems unlikely to take place in the near future," he said in a statement, quoted Thursday, November 13.

He added that from a political perspective, the US House of Representatives is scheduled to hold a vote to end the closure of the government after the Senate first approved a bill (RUU) aimed at reopening state spending activities.

Ibrahim said the bill was now brought to the House of Representatives for approval, and the majority of Republicans have given signals that they will support it.

"After this, the bill will be submitted to Trump to be signed into law. The end of the government closure will open the door to more official economic data releases, which in turn can help ease uncertainty over the economy," he explained.

Furthermore, Ibrahim added that the difference in views within the Federal Reserve regarding the possibility of cutting interest rates in December is widening, namely delays in the publication of economic data in September and October which also exacerbated tensions among policymakers.

"The traders will then pay close attention to the speeches of several Fed officials today. John Williams, Anna Paulson, Christopher Waller, Raphael Bostic, Stephen Miran, and Susan Collins of The Fed are scheduled to speak at various forums they attend," he explained.

Meanwhile, from within the country, Bank Indonesia projects economic growth in 2026 to reach 5.33 percent, slightly below the government and DPR's target set at 5.4 percent. This projection considers global and domestic economic conditions that are still full of uncertainty.

As for the domestic economy, BI is also considering a central bank support plan to encourage growth through lower interest rates to the expansion of monetary and macroprudential liquidity.

Meanwhile, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) projects that Indonesia's economic growth will only reach 4.9 percent in 2026, much lower than the government and BI targets.

Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but close lower in trading Thursday, November 13, 2025, in the price range of Rp. 16,720 - Rp. 16,760 per US dollar.