Potential Tax Shortfall Increases, Government Considers Forming BPN

Illustration: Photo: Doc. ANTARA

JAKARTA - The government has the potential to face great pressure in fiscal management next year if the realization of tax revenues is unable to meet projections in the 2025 State Budget.

As of August, total tax revenues were recorded at IDR 1,135.4 trillion, or only 54.7 percent of the 2025 APBN outlook target set at IDR 2,076.9 trillion.

For information, the DPR has approved the tax revenue target for 2026 of IDR 2,357.7 trillion, which reflects 13.5 percent growth when compared to the estimated tax realization by 2025.

However, with the current achievement still in the range of 54.7 percent, the risk of tax revenue shortfall is still very likely, so this condition has the potential to make revenue growth targets in 2026 look too ambitious.

Previously, Minister of Finance Purbaya Yudhi Sadives admitted that he would consider forming a State Revenue Agency (BPN) if efforts to optimize state revenues did not run as targeted.

"What is clear is that we will first optimize the income from customs and taxes. Later, if the results are not good, then we will think about it," said Purbaya in a press conference on the September 2025 KiTa Edisi State Budget, Tuesday, September 23.

Meanwhile, for now, Purbaya assesses that intervention through the formation of BPN is still not needed.

Purbaya will still test the design of the existing revenue strategy while calculating the potential increase in revenue. The assessment will continue until he sees more stable results.

"But it feels, until now it has not (considered BPN)," he added.

On the other hand, Purbaya gave a signal that people from the Ministry of Finance who were supposed to take care of BPN would change positions.

He did not explicitly state who he was referring to. However, news circulated that Deputy Minister of Finance Anggito Abhimanyu would change duties.

"Until now I haven't thought about whether there is a State Revenue Agency. Especially considering that the person who takes care of it will be moved soon," he said while looking to the left side of himself.

Even so, Purbaya added that President Prabowo Subianto's directive would determine the fate of the formation of BPN.

"So, not yet (planned to form BPN). But it depends on what kind of president's order will be," he said.

For information, tax revenues as of August 31, 2025, recorded a decrease of 3.6 percent with a realization value of Rp1,330.4 trillion or 55.7 percent of the 2025 State Budget outlook of Rp2,387.3 trillion.

In detail, receipts from corrected taxes amounted to 5.1 percent with a realization value of Rp1,135.4 trillion or 54.7 percent of the outlook of Rp2,076.9 trillion.

However, positive support can be seen from customs and excise revenues which grew 6.4 percent with a realization of IDR 194.9 trillion which was equivalent to 62.8 percent of the outlook of IDR 310.4 trillion.