JAKARTA - President Commissioner of HFX International Futures Sutopo Widodo said that the rupiah exchange rate is expected to tend to weaken on Tuesday, September 9, 2025, with a potential for more volatile movement.
He said that although on Monday, September 8, the spot closed higher to the level of Rp. 16,310 per US dollar thanks to positive sentiment from the global weakening of the US dollar, the emergence of new domestic sentiment actually sparked market concerns.
"Initially, the rupiah benefited from global sentiment. US labor data that is weaker than expected has increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates. This makes the US dollar less attractive and encourages investor interest in emerging market currencies, including the rupiah," he told VOI, Tuesday, September 9.
However, in the afternoon, he explained that domestic sentiment took over where news of a cabinet reshuffle, particularly the issue of replacing Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, caused the rupiah exchange rate in the non-deliverable forward (NDF) market to drop sharply from the range of Rp. 16,310 to touch Rp. 16,600 per US dollar.
According to him, this decline reflects foreign investors' concerns over the increasing political and fiscal uncertainty in the country.
He said there were several factors driving the rupiah on Tuesday, September 9, such as domestic market reactions where the domestic spot market, which closed before the reshuffle news was announced, was expected to react negatively at the opening of morning trading.
According to him, the sharp weakening that occurs in the offshore market will most likely spread to the domestic market.
Furthermore, he added that foreign capital flows where the movement of foreign funds in the bond market and stocks will be of great concern. If foreign investors start to capital outflow, pressure on the rupiah has the potential to increase.
Sutopo said the next factor, namely US economic data because US inflation data is scheduled to be released this week will remain an important factor.
According to him, if inflation shows a sloping trend, this could reduce pressure on the rupiah. However, if inflation remains high, the rupiah will face double pressure, both from global and domestic factors.
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Sutopo said that based on current conditions, the range of rupiah movement in trading on Tuesday, September 9 is estimated to be between Rp. 16,475 per US dollar to Rp. 16,670 per US dollar.
"This movement can be very wild, so pay attention to the thorough development of politics and the economy," he concluded.
To note, citing Bloomberg, the rupiah exchange rate on Monday, September 8, the rupiah spot exchange rate closed higher by 0.75 percent to the level of Rp. 16,310 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed up 0.55 percent to a price level of Rp. 16,348 per US dollar.
For information, President Prabowo Subianto officially inaugurated Purbaya Yudhi Sadivewa as Minister of Finance replacing Sri Mulyani, Monday, September 8.
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