Bank Mandiri Predicts Economic Growth In The Third Quarter Of 2025 Below 5 Percent

Illustration: Photo: Doc. ANTARA

Bank Mandiri projects that Indonesia's economic growth in the third quarter of 2025 will not exceed 5 percent.

"We see the third quarter of 2025, our calculation is that economic growth may reach the current range of 4.9 to 5 percent," said Head of the Macro Economic Research Department and Bank Mandiri Financial Market Dian Ayu Yustina at the Mandiri Macro and Market Brief Quarter III 2025 Indonesia Economic Outlook, Thursday, August 28.

According to Dian, this figure shows a slight slowdown compared to the second quarter of 2025 which recorded a growth of 5.12 percent.

He explained that this was due to seasonal factors where economic activity was usually higher in the first and second quarters.

Dian added that the weakening of the economy in the third quarter was also influenced by the decline in export performance, which mainly contributed to the implementation of tariff policies by the Trump administration, and began to slow public consumption.

"We know that there has been an implementation of tariffs around the world starting August 1 and we are still seeing its impact, the impact on export performance is downside risk here and also earlier regarding the slowdown or normalization in terms of consumption," he said.

Kendati demikian, Dian menyampaikan, masih ada faktor pendorong pertumbuhan, yaitu percepatan realisasi belanja pemerintah (APBN) pada semester kedua, yang berpotensi mengangkat permintaan domestik.

“Tentunya realisasi belanja pemerintah ini harusnya bisa mendorong permintaan domestik misalnya melalui bantuan sosial, melalui program-program, realisasi program-program dan juga proyek-proyek infrastruktur jadi di situ katalisnya,” pungkasnya.

Nevertheless, Dian said, there is still a driving factor in growth, namely the acceleration of the realization of government spending (APBN) in the second half, which has the potential to raise domestic demand.

"Of course, the realization of government spending should be able to encourage domestic demand, for example through social assistance, through programs, realization of programs and also infrastructure projects, so there are catalysts," he concluded.