JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Tuesday, August 19 is expected to weaken against the United States (US) dollar.
To note, citing Bloomberg, on Monday, August 18, the rupiah spot exchange closed down 0.18 percent to the level of Rp. 16,198 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) on Friday, August 15 closed down 0.33 percent to a price level of Rp. 16,162 per US dollar.
Currency observer Ibrahim Assuaibi said US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin were scheduled to meet in Alaska on Friday to discuss the terms of a ceasefire with Ukraine.
"Trump is threatening to have serious consequences if Putin does not agree to peace, given that the previous US president has threatened a high tariff against major Russian oil buyers, namely India and China," he said in a statement, quoted Tuesday, August 19.
Ibrahim added Trump's actions against his threats, combined with additional restrictions targeting the Russian oil industry, could further tighten global supplies, adding to pressure on crude prices.
According to him analysts say tougher restrictions on Moscow's energy exports are likely to exacerbate existing supply constraints, particularly in Europe and parts of Asia, which still relie heavily on Russian crude and processed products.
He said the market impact could swing sharply in the opposite direction if the US moved to ease sanctions or offer limited relief in exchange for concessions from Moscow.
Meanwhile, from within the country, Ibrahim said that Bank Indonesia (BI) noted that Foreign Debt or external debt in the second quarter of 2025 reached 433.3 billion US dollars or equivalent to Rp6,976.1 trillion (according to the BI Jisdor exchange rate as of August 14, 2025, Rp16,109 per US dollar).
Meanwhile, Indonesia's external debt position in the second quarter of 2025 was recorded at 433.3 billion US dollars, or an annual growth of 6.1 percent (yoy), slightly lower than the growth in the first quarter of 2025 of 6.4 percent (yoy).
The slowdown in external debt growth from the first quarter of 2025 was influenced by private external debt which continued its growth contraction from the previous three months.
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Based on its composition, the government's external debt in April-June 2025 was 210.1 billion US dollars or equivalent to Rp3,382.6 trillion. The value grew by 10 percent (yoy) compared to April-June 2024. Its growth also shot up from the first quarter of 2025, which was 7.6 percent (yoy).
The development of the external debt was mainly influenced by the increase in foreign capital inflows in domestic Government Securities (SBN), as investors maintained investor confidence in Indonesia's economic prospects amid the uncertainty of the global financial market.
Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but close lower in trading on Tuesday, August 19, 2025, in the price range of Rp. 16,120 - Rp. 16,230 per US dollar.
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