JAKARTA - Bank Mandiri Chief Economist Andry Asmoro explained, there are several impacts on the 32 percent import rate of the United States (US) on Indonesia and the national financial market.
Andry said that setting a rate of 32 percent by the US is a challenge for national exports, especially electronic and textile/garment commodities.
In addition, he added that Indonesia has the potential to lose export competitiveness to countries such as Vietnam in products, garment, shoes, and fisheries and Malaysia in CPO and electronic products.
"In the future, we predict that market volatility will still be high ahead of the August 1, 2025 negotiation limit," he explained in his statement, Tuesday, July 8.
Andry conveyed that the negative sentiment of this tariff policy also has the potential to suppress the financial market in the short term where previously, after the announcement of the resipprocal tariff in April 2025, the JCI had dropped 7.9 percent and the Rupiah weakened 1.8 percent.
He added that the market response this morning showed the composite stock price index (JCI) slightly weakened 0.01 percent to the level of 6,900, with an estimated movement of between 6,834 and 6,931.
Meanwhile, the rupiah also weakened 0.07 percent to IDR 16,242 and is predicted to move in the range of IDR 16,255 and the US dollar index (DXY) is in the range of 97 98.
"Market participants will wait and see the potential for pressure on the profitability of export issuers," he explained.
However, he explained, the new tariff announced by the US Government is not final and still opens up opportunities for negotiations and the final tariff is scheduled to take effect on August 1, 2025.
As for products from Indonesia, the tariff is maintained at 32 percent, which is higher than tariffs for the Philippines (17 percent), Vietnam (20 percent), and Malaysia (25 percent), but lower than Thailand (36 percent), Cambodia (36 percent), Myanmar (40 percent), and Bangladesh (35 percent).
In addition, Andry said Vietnam managed to lower fares from 46 percent to 20 percent through a trade agreement (Trad Deal) with the US, even offering tariff-free access (0 percent) for US products, although export products were subject to a high tariff of 40 percent to prevent Chinese products re-exported through Vietnam.
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He added that the value of Indonesia's exports to the US in 2024 reached US$42.5 billion or around 10.7 percent of the total national exports and the equivalent of 2.5 percent of Indonesia's GDP.
Andry added, in the period January to May 2025, Indonesia's non-oil and gas exports to the US grew 18.2 percent to 12.1 billion US dollars, dominated by electronic products, finished clothing, and footwear that have high competitiveness in the US consumer market.
"In addition, Trump also stated that he would impose an additional 10 percent tariff for countries that support policies Trump calls Anti-American politicians of BRICS," he said.
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