Sri Mulyani Predicts Oil Prices In The Range Of 66-94 US Dollars Per Barrel

Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani. (Photo: ANTARA)

Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani Indrawati projects that world oil prices will be in the range of 66 to 94 US dollars per barrel in the second semester of 2025.

This projection considers global geopolitical dynamics, including tensions in the Middle East as well as policy directions from oil producing countries.

"We estimate (the oil price) is quite wide between 66 and 94 US dollars per barrel in the second semester," Sri Mulyani said as quoted by ANTARA, Wednesday, July 2.

However, he acknowledged that the outlook for oil prices in the future was still filled with uncertainty.

World oil prices have soared due to a bombing incident in Iran by Israel.

However, Sri Mulyani believes conditions will slowly subside and encourages confidence that oil prices will not break the psychological figure of 100 US dollars per barrel by the end of the year.

"Hopefully the atmosphere will be maintained conducive from the geopolitical side and the war in the Middle East," he said.

On the other hand, the State Treasurer observed a number of projections from global institutions showing varying numbers.

The World Energy Institute estimates oil prices could be at the level of 66 US dollars per barrel, Bloomberg puts it at 69 US dollars, while the World Bank is more conservative with an estimated $64 per barrel.

As for oil lifting, the government estimates that oil production volume in the second half will be in the range of 593,000 to 597,000 barrels per day, including an addition from the Banyu Urip oil field.

Then, gas lifting is projected to be between 976,000 and 980,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

"For the lifting (oil), apart from what we conveyed at the DPR Plenary Meeting regarding the addition of the Banyu Urip (oil field), this is between 593,000-597,000 per day. Meanwhile, gas is still below 1 million, namely 976-980 US dollars per BSMPH in the second semester," said Sri Mulyani.

Sri Mulyani in her presentation explained that the movement of Indonesian crude oil prices (ICP) in the first semester of 2025 tended to decline, which was influenced by global demand factors and the dynamics of foreign policy.

The US intervention of OPEC+ policy to increase production from July 2025, as well as opportunities for the US-China trade deal, also affects market expectations.

Meanwhile, for the second semester, the price will still be dynamic, with the potential for an upward trend due to supply disruptions from the Middle East conflict.

However, according to him, there is still a OPEC+ signal to continue plans to increase production.