JAKARTA - Bright Institute economist Awalil Rizky explained that running transactions are a wider balance of goods and services trading, which includes not only trading in goods, but also all receipts and payments for services in international transactions.
According to him, this is different from the Trade Balance published by the Central Statistics Agency which only records the trade in goods and some related services.
Awalil said that the deficit transaction showed that Indonesia's import value of goods and services was higher than its exports, while the surplus showed otherwise.
"Indonesia has more frequent deficits, as follows: the era of 1981-1997 is always a deficit, the 1998-2011 era is always a surplus, the 2012-2020 era is always a deficit, in 2021 and 2022 there will be a surplus, in 2023 and 2024 there will be a deficit again," he said in his statement, Monday, March 10.
Awalil said that the continuous deficit, especially those of great value, reflects that Indonesia's external resilience is not too strong. This can erode foreign exchange reserves and weaken the rupiah exchange rate, and the non-optimal contribution of exports of goods and services to economic growth.
Meanwhile, President Prabowo has issued Presidential Regulation Number 12 of 2025 concerning the 2025-2029 National Medium-Term Development Plan (RPJMN). This RPJMN is equipped with an analysis of the latest conditions, including in the economic sector, which contains projections of economic indicators that will be targeted by the Prabowo government until 2029.
One of the indicators presented is Running Transactions, which are projected to experience a deficit of 25.80 billion US dollars or 1.09 percent of GDP in 2029, which is in line with the IMF's slightly larger projection, which is 29.04 billion US dollars or 1.43 percent.
"This projection or target is arguably strange and does not match the document narrative. RPJMN said it would rely on exports for economic growth, and strengthen external resilience. It should be remembered that the realization of RPJMN in the past is usually below the target," he explained.
The first component of Transaction Run is the balance sheet of goods, which in 2029 is projected to be as follows, namely exports worth US$402.95 billion, up 53.91 percent from 2024, imports of US$371.85 billion, up 67.59 percent from 2024, and a surplus of goods of 31.10 billion US dollars, down 22.11 percent from 2024.
"Surprisingly, the target for the trade surplus of goods has actually decreased," he said.
The second component is the balance sheet, which is projected to record exports of 68.59 billion US dollars, up 75.88 percent from 2024, imports worth 83.82 billion US dollars, up 45.35 percent from 2024, and a deficit of 15.23 billion US dollars, down 18.41 percent from 2024.
Although this target is quite heavy, Awalil said that it is still realistic and this document does not provide a clear strategy to develop the service sector that can be exported, unless it relies on tourism.
The third component is the Primary Revenue Balance, which is projected to experience a deficit of 53.00 billion US dollars, up 46.85 percent from 2024.
"The wide deficit projection has exceeded the historical trend of increasing the deficit so far. It can be interpreted as an acknowledgment of the increasing cost of foreign capital services entering Indonesia in the future," he added.
The fourth component is the Securrency Revenue Balance, which is projected to experience a surplus of 11.37 billion US dollars, up 90.23 percent from 2024.
"This target is less realistic, judging from the conditions in 2019 where the surplus increased 46.15% compared to 2014. In fact, the surplus decreased in 2024 compared to 2019," he explained.
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Furthermore, Awalil said that the RPJMN document did not reveal a new strategy in managing Indonesian Manpower (TKI).
Meanwhile, TKI's remittance, which is the main contribution to secondary revenue, does not seem to be the focus of government policy.
"At the same time, it is not recognized that the reduced surplus in the 2019-2024 era was also contributed by the increase in the remittance of Foreign Workers," he explained.
Overall, Awalil considered that the quantitative target of Transactions in the 2025-2029 RPJMN document was not in accordance with the existing narrative.
"It does not support the desire to rely on exports for economic growth, and strengthen external resilience. The narrative is normative and fulfilled with desire or just hope," he said.
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