JAKARTA - PT Bank Mandiri Tbk. predicts that economic growth in the third quarter of 2021 will be able to touch the level of 3.5 percent year-on-year (yoy). This was conveyed directly by the company's chief economist, Andry Asmoro.
According to him, the surge in COVID-19 cases due to the spread of the delta variant at the beginning of the third quarter had hampered the growth rate.
"With the latest developments, we estimate that economic growth has the potential to slow down a bit but will still record positive growth in the third quarter at 3.51 percent yoy," he said in an official statement, Thursday, September 9.
Andry added, the government responded to the second wave of the pandemic through the Policy for the Enforcement of Community Activity Restrictions (PPKM). This then has an effect on a significant decrease in public consumption.
In fact, he continued, sectoral economic growth has shown a positive direction of recovery in the second quarter of 2021, which is indicated by the transportation, hotel and restaurant sectors, trade fiber has begun to be on the green line with an increase of 25.1 percent, 21 percent, respectively. 6 percent, and 9.4 percent yoy.
"However, along with the current relaxation of PPKM, public spending has shown a significant improvement," he said.
Meanwhile, for the whole year, Bank Mandiri believes that Indonesia's economic growth will reach 3.69 percent yoy.
"Going forward, the economic recovery strategy must be in line with efforts to control the pandemic. The spread of COVID-19 cases must be suppressed through the implementation of procedures, testing and tracing amid the ongoing acceleration of vaccination. This is because there is still a risk of the emergence of new virus variants that will trigger an increase in global COVID-19 cases," he explained.
“In addition to the risk of COVID-19 uncertainty, we must also anticipate the risk of the impact of tapering policies in the US and their impact on financial markets. However, the external balance position of the Indonesian economy is relatively better today than it was in 2013 even in the midst of a pandemic," concluded Andry.
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