JAKARTA - The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) recorded that the Indonesian economy grew 7.07 percent in the second quarter of 2021 on an annual basis or year on year (yoy). Even though Indonesia has succeeded in getting Indonesia out of recession, the annual (yoy) growth spurt is considered a pseudo growth.
The head of the Center of Industry, Trade and Investment Institute for Development on Economics and Finance (Indef) Andry Satrio Nugroho said the very sharp economic growth on an annual basis did not necessarily mark the national economy returning to normal levels.
"So if you say whether the end of the recession, or pseudo growth or illusion, of course I would say this is pseudo growth," he said in a virtual press conference, Friday, August 6.
Andry said, when comparing the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2021 with the average achievement before the pandemic, namely in 2018 and 2019. As a result, GDP growth in the second quarter of 2021 actually decreased.
"In the second quarter, if we compare it with before the pandemic era, the new growth was at 3.87 (percent). If we look at the natural rate growth, which is 5 percent, of course the answer is that we haven't gone that way," he said.
Not only the economy, according to Andry, people's mobility has not returned to normal levels or levels before the COVID-19 pandemic. The data shown by the Google Mobility Index, describes the activities and mobility of people who have not reached the base line in February 2020.
"This means that activities are still not normal enough. Then, we still have several things, such as health protocols, social distancing, and so on. I think this is what I think is still making our economy still growing limited," he said.
On the other hand, Andry said, pseudo growth also refers to the challenges that the economy will potentially face in the second half of 2021, due to the implementation of Emergency PPKM and level 4 since early July 2021 or entering the beginning of the third quarter of 2021.
Andry estimates that if the pandemic conditions have not subsided in the third quarter of 2021, then economic growth could decline or be lower than the achievement in the second quarter of 2021 on an annual basis. Because, in the third quarter of 2020, the PSBB policy was relaxed so that the basis for the comparison of growth between the second quarter of 2021 and the third quarter of 2021 will be different.
"It could be that the growth will be lower than the second quarter of 2021," he said.
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