National Economist Bad Forecast: Economic Growth Is Not Up To 3 Percent

JAKARTA - The number of cases of COVID-19 in the country has continued to increase in recent times, to suppress the spread of cases the government implemented the Emergency PPKM policy or currently called PPKM level 4 to July 25. The impact of these restrictions on community activities on economic growth is enormous.

Senior Economist Fadhil Hasan predicts the implementation of PPKM will cut economic growth in the third quarter of 2021 sharply from the government's target of 4 to 5 percent. As is known, the government in this case the Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani targets the national economy to grow in the range of 3.7 percent to 4.5 percent throughout 2021. This projection is down from the original which was in the range of 4.3 percent to 5.3 percent. "I think it makes sense that economic growth in the third quarter of 2021 will be cut sharply compared to the initial prediction of 4-5 percent," he said. Furthermore, Fadhil said this prediction was based on experience in 2020 when the government implemented a PSBB policy in an effort to suppress the spread of the virus. "In mid-March 2020 we saw that the economic growth in the first quarter of 2020 fell, if I'm not mistaken, only by almost 2 percent compared to the first quarter of 2019," he explained.

The economy will be worse

Fadhil said that with the implementation of PPKM Level 4, the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country has not improved, not only economic growth in the third quarter, even the next quarter will face pressure. Furthermore, Fadhil said, seeing the crisis conditions due to this pandemic, economic activities really need time. "Economic growth in the third quarter of 2021 will experience a sharp correction. Maybe in the next month the economy will continue to experience pressure," he said. Senada, senior economist at the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) Didin S Damanhuri admitted that he is pessimistic that national economic growth in the third quarter of 2021 will reach the government's target. This is because the handling of the pandemic in the country has not shown improvement. "It is possible that the Indonesian government's projection of around 3 to 4 percent will not be achieved in my opinion," he said. Furthermore, Didin said that until now the governance of the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country has not yet been achieved. show improvement. Moreover, coupled with the widespread spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19 outside Java. "So there is no anticipatory approach to dealing with an economic health crisis at once," he said.

The government's economic growth target is considered high

Former Minister of Finance under President Suharto Fuad Bawazier said the government's economic growth forecast of 3.7 percent to 4.5 percent is a form of propaganda to build public and investor confidence. rupiah, maintain the optimism of the public, investors, and others," he said. According to Fuad, the government's overly optimistic economic growth projection is not supported by real conditions on the ground. Because, currently MSME actors have screamed that they cannot face the pressure of COVID-19, the tourism sector has collapsed, and so on. Therefore, he predicts the realization of economic growth this year is far from the government's estimate of 2 percent in the second quarter of 2021, then minus 0.5 percent in the third and fourth quarters of 2021. Fuad also admitted that he did not believe in the economic growth target made by the government. He considered that the target was often missed because it was too high from the realization. "Honestly, I am increasingly distrustful of the predictions of economic growth figures according to state officials, which are almost always too high and are almost always wrong even though they have been corrected many times. the last number is still wrong, consistently wrong height," he said.

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Tag: ekonomi nasional covid 19 ppkm level 4