JAKARTA - The Executive Director of Aljabar Strategic Indonesia, Arifki Chaniago, assessed that the political movement of the 7th President of the Republic of Indonesia, Joko Widodo (Jokowi), who is increasingly active in visiting various regions has the potential to change the elite's calculations and political parties towards the 2029 presidential election.
Because, in the midst of changing the design of the contest after the elimination of the presidential threshold, figures with strong electoral influence such as Jokowi are seen as still being an important variable in the formulation of national political strategies.
He revealed that Jokowi's activities cannot be read as a normal agenda. According to him, every visit and political communication made by Jokowi will always be interpreted as a signal by the party elite, especially in reading the direction of the coalition and the opportunity for figures towards 2029.
"Jokowi's movement will be read as a political code by the entire elite. Regardless of what the agenda is, Jokowi's political influence is still an important variable in the calculation towards 2029," said Arifki, Sunday, July 12.
He stated that if Jokowi's political influence is maintained, then Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka's bargaining position in various scenarios for the 2029 presidential election also has the potential to strengthen.
In this context, Jokowi's maneuver can have a direct impact on the nomination map, coalition configuration, and the strategies of major parties.
This condition, makes a number of national figures need to start taking momentum early.
Names such as Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono or AHY, Muhaimin Iskandar or Cak Imin, Zulkifli Hasan or Zulhas, to other national figures are considered to have to immediately build public perceptions so as not to be left behind in the political competition leading to 2029.
"AHY, Cak Imin, Zulhas, and other national figures should start taking momentum. In politics, those who move early usually have a greater opportunity to build public perception," added Arifki.
He also considered it normal if the PDI Perjuangan was not too comfortable seeing the intensity of Jokowi's movement.
Because, the stronger Jokowi's political influence, the greater the potential for coalition calculations and bargaining power of political parties, including when the PDI Perjuangan seeks a strategic position in the scenario of vice presidential candidates in the 2029 presidential election.
"Jokowi's move not only strengthens Gibran's bargaining position, but can also shift the political balance. That's why every party will read this situation very seriously," he continued.
He saw that the dynamics were also beginning to be felt within the coalition parties of the government.
Even though formally still in one coalition, the long-term political interests of each party are starting to move in different directions and targets.
"They are still in one coalition, but the political interests leading to 2029 are starting to run individually. It's like sleeping in one bed, but the dreams are different," he added.
Arifki emphasized that politics is always related to momentum, perception, and bargaining position.
When one political actor moves and his influence increases, other actors will adjust their strategies so as not to lose space on the national contestation map.
"Therefore, the public will increasingly see the maneuvers of the party chairmen and national figures as part of the consolidation towards the 2029 presidential election," he said.
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