BPS Projects Annual Inflation to Return to Normal in April 2026

Illustration. (Photo: Dok. Antara)

JAKARTA - Deputy Head of Distribution and Services Statistics of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) Ateng Hartono projects that the annual inflation rate (year-on-year/yoy) will return to normal in April 2026 after the low base effect ends.

He said the effect triggered a spike in the annual inflation rate in January-February 2026 and is predicted to end in March 2026.

"The low base effect will still affect the annual inflation in March, but it is possible to end in March as well, so that in April 2026 the inflation rate will be relatively stable again, there is no low base effect," he said in Jakarta, quoted by Antara, Tuesday, March 3.

Ateng said that the low base effect phenomenon occurred due to the government incentive policy given the previous year.

In January-February 2025, the government provided a 50 percent discount on electricity tariffs for a wide range of household customers.

The massive discount significantly reduced the consumer price index (CPI), thus encouraging the national economy at that time to experience deflation.

The low CPI position then became a point of comparison to calculate this year's inflation.

"The decline in CPI caused the price level in January and February in 2025 to be below the normal trend pattern," said Ateng.

He said the impact of the excessively low inflation rate at the beginning of 2025, even to the point of deflation, as a result of the electricity tariff discount policy was very noticeable when comparing the CPI on an annual basis in the same month at the beginning of 2026.

Due to the fact that the base of the comparison index in the previous year was too small and was not in its normal trend, the increase in the percentage of annual inflation this year automatically increased significantly.

This caused inflation in January and February 2026, which were recorded at 3.55 percent yoy and 4.76 percent yoy, to look very high.

"Nevertheless, (the dynamics) of the price is relatively in line with its fundamental trend. That is, in the coming months, in April and later in 2026, it will return to the normal trend," said Ateng.