JAKARTA - The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) reported annual inflation (year on year/yoy) in January 2026 at 3.55 percent. However, on a monthly basis (month to month/mtm), it actually recorded deflation of 0.15 percent.
BPS Deputy for Distribution and Services Statistics Ateng Hartono said that the difference in the direction of inflation was triggered by the low base effect phenomenon which originated from the same period in the previous year.
He explained that in January and February 2025 the government imposed a policy of discounted electricity tariffs and this suppressed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in early 2025, causing deflation in those two months.
"We know that the high inflation in January 2026 year on year is influenced by the low base effect. In January and February 2025, the government implemented a policy of discounted electricity tariffs which of course will suppress the CPI in January and February 2025," he said in a press conference, Monday, February 2.
According to him, the decline in the CPI due to electricity discounts makes the price level in January 2025 below the normal pattern and this condition then affects the calculation of annual inflation in the following year.
"Thus, when the inflation calculation year on year is carried out in the same period in 2026, the comparison basis is relatively low, as a result the inflation rate appears high," he explained.
Ateng added that the main contribution to annual inflation came from the electricity tariff group and in 2025, electricity prices were suppressed by the discount policy, while in 2026 the tariff was again imposed normally.
"Earlier, the comparison in 2025 was due to the low electricity tariff discount, so this is what drives high inflation in the group, especially in electricity," he said.
However, Ateng emphasized that in general the current price movement has returned to normal conditions.
He estimated that annual inflation in January and February 2026 would still be influenced by the low base effect.
"Once again, the occurrence of inflation year on year in January and February will occur due to the low base effect due to the electricity tariff discount policy implemented in January and February 2025," he said.
The English, Chinese, Japanese, Arabic, and French versions are automatically generated by the AI. So there may still be inaccuracies in translating, please always see Indonesian as our main language. (system supported by DigitalSiber.id)
