JAKARTA - President Commissioner of HFX International Futures Sutopo Widodo projects that the rupiah exchange rate in Monday, January 19, 2026 trade, is still under pressure, as the accumulation of global and domestic sentiments developed throughout the weekend.
For information, citing Bloomberg data, Friday, January 16, 2025, the spot rupiah exchange rate closed up 0.05 percent to Rp16,887 per US dollar.
Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) of the Bank Indonesia (BI) on Thursday, January 15, closed down 0.05 percent to the price level of Rp16,880 per US dollar.
Sutopo added that currently, the rupiah is at a crucial level in the range of Rp16,860-Rp16,890 per US dollar and is testing the psychological level of Rp16,900 per US dollar.
"If there is no major intervention from Bank Indonesia (BI), there is a tendency that the rupiah will open slightly weaker or move fluctuatio. Support: Rp16,850 (Strengthening area if global sentiment eases). Resistance: Rp16,920 (Weakening area if the US dollar strengthens sharply again)," he told VOI, Monday, January 19.
According to Sutopo, the movement of the rupiah tends to consolidate with a bias to weaken, given that market participants take a cautious or risk-off stance ahead of a number of important agendas in the middle of the week.
He added that a number of key sentiments that need to be noted include the finalization of the legal drafting of the trade agreement between Indonesia and the United States which entered the final limit of the technical meeting in Washington D.C. on January 19.
According to him, positive news related to the tariff agreement and access to critical minerals to the US market has the potential to provide positive sentiment for the rupiah.
In addition, Sutopo said the market also anticipated the Bank Indonesia Board of Governors meeting scheduled for January 21, 2026.
He added that there was speculation that BI had the opportunity to start cutting the benchmark interest rate from the level of 4.75 percent in the first quarter of 2026, but the expectation of too aggressive interest rate cuts amid the strengthening of the US dollar risked suppressing the rupiah due to the narrowing of the yield gap.
Sutopo said that from the perspective of external sentiment, the presence of President Prabowo and the Indonesian economic team at the World Economic Forum (WEF) Davos starting January 19 is expected to be able to attract foreign investors through the narrative of energy transition and nickel downstream, so that it has the potential to encourage the flow of capital.
Meanwhile, he said global factors such as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the movement of the US Dollar Index (DXY) were also a concern, and as long as DXY remained above the 99 level, the rupiah strengthening room was expected to be limited.
"If tensions escalate, global investors will hunt for safe haven assets such as the US Dollar and Gold, which will automatically put pressure on emerging market currencies including the Rupiah, and the Dollar Index (DXY), as long as the DXY stays above the 99 level, the room for strengthening the Rupiah will be very limited," he concluded.
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