JAKARTA - The movement of the rupiah exchange rate in Friday's trade, January 9, 2026 is expected to be under pressure and tends to weaken against the US dollar.
To note, quoting Bloomberg, on Thursday, January 8, the spot rupiah exchange rate closed down 0.11 percent to the level of Rp16,798 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of the Bank Indonesia (BI) closed down 0.09 percent at the price level of Rp16,801 per US dollar.
Money market observer Ibrahim Assuaibi explained that a number of US economic indicators showed improvements in business activity, while the labor market conditions were also seen as better than previously estimated.
He added that the ISM Services PMI index jumped from 52.6 to 54.4, well above the projection of 52.3.
On the other hand, the November JOLTS report from the US Department of Labor recorded the number of job vacancies falling to 7.146 million from 7.449 million in October, indicating a gradual slowdown in labor demand.
"The ADP Employment Change shows that private payrolls increased by 41,000 in December, less than the forecast of 47,000, but marked a clear improvement from the loss of 29,000 jobs in November, indicating a temporary stabilization in hiring towards the end of the year," he said in a statement. quoted, Friday, January 9.
Ibrahim said that the attention of market participants will then focus on the release of the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the US Nonfarm Payrolls report for December.
According to him, the employment data has the potential to move the gold price again if the US labor market conditions show continued weakness.
From a geopolitical perspective, Ibrahim also highlighted US President Donald Trump's plan to take control of the Venezuelan oil industry in the next few years.
"Trump plans to control the Venezuelan oil industry for the next few years, according to the WSJ report, in an effort to achieve the president's target of 50 US dollars per barrel," he explained.
Meanwhile, from within the country, Bank Indonesia recorded Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves position at the end of December 2025 reaching 156.5 billion US dollars, an increase from 150.1 billion US dollars at the end of November 2025.
The increase was driven by tax and service receipts, the issuance of government global sukuk, and government loan withdrawals.
The foreign exchange reserves are equivalent to financing imports for 6.4 months or 6.3 months of imports and government external debt payments, and are above the international adequacy standard of about three months of imports.
This condition is considered capable of supporting the resilience of the external sector as well as maintaining macroeconomic stability and the national financial system.
Looking ahead, Bank Indonesia believes that Indonesia's external resilience will remain solid, supported by adequate foreign exchange reserves and the potential for continued foreign capital inflows in line with investors' positive perceptions of domestic economic prospects and competitive investment returns.
In addition, BI also continues to strengthen coordination with the government to maintain economic stability and encourage sustainable economic growth.
Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will move fluctuatio but will close weaker on Friday, January 9, 2026 in the price range of IDR 16,780 - IDR 16,810 per US dollar.
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