JAKARTA - Public policy analyst Head of Researcher NEXT Indonesia Center Ade Holis assessed that the government's plan to impose a coal exit tax policy starting January 2026 has the potential to increase state revenues by around Rp19 trillion in one budget year.
The potential for the receipt of the Exit Tax is the result of research by the NEXT Indonesia Center without including lignite or coal that is young and of the lowest quality.
"So the simulation of income comes only from commodities with HS code 2701, namely coal and briquettes. While lignite has HS code 2702. If the government includes lignite in the Exit Tax, the potential revenue will be greater," said Head of Researcher NEXT Indonesia Center Ade Holis quoted by Antara, Sunday, December 21.
He said the research was a response to the government's plan to reactivate the Exit Tax policy or Export Collection of coal starting January 2026, after two decades of being free of Exit Tax. The last time the government imposed an Exit Tax on coal was in 2005-2006.
The policy plan, he said, is mainly to increase state revenues while eliminating the coal "subsidies" that have been implemented, namely through the exemption of export duties.
According to Ade Holis, the results of the NEXT Indonesia Center simulation revealed that the potential flow of funds to the state treasury in 2026 from the policy reached IDR 11.7 trillion for the pessimistic scenario, IDR 15.0 trillion for the moderate scenario, and IDR 19 trillion in the optimistic scenario.
The simulation is calculated assuming an exit tax rate of 2.5 percent, as the midpoint or moderate between 1-5 percent promised by Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa as the amount of the tariff.
The simulation also considers the variables of export volume, Export Benchmark Price (HPE), as well as the projection of the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar exchange rate. This simulation specifically refers to the export volume of coal that falls under HS Code 2701, namely coal and briquettes.
"The simulation benchmark uses the basis of the 2005 Minister of Finance Regulation when the Coal Exit Tax was implemented," said Ade Holis.
However, he reminded that the Exit Tax policy was not merely an effort to increase state revenue.
Moreover, he continued, it is also an important instrument to encourage downstream processing by ensuring that coal is not only dredged and sold raw abroad, but processed into industrial raw materials in the country so that the economic benefits are much greater.
Since the free exit tax policy was implemented, state revenue from coal only comes from production fees or royalties and mining fixed fees.
In 2024, according to data from the Ministry of Finance, the amount reached Rp. 77.9 trillion or around 13.33 percent of the total Non-Tax State Revenues (PNBP).
Thus, additional income in the form of Exit Tax from these natural resources commodities will help fatten the state's wallet.
Although the potential revenue is very tempting, Ade Holis reminded that this policy still has risks that must be anticipated, especially related to competitiveness in the international market.
His party has noted the concerns of business actors regarding the potential for a decline in profit margins due to the trend of declining global coal prices coupled with an increase in mining operating costs.
According to him, the government should not ignore the preferences of the global market which is very sensitive to commodity prices. The key to the success of the policy lies in the momentum (timing) and the design of adaptive rules.
"For example, by drafting a transparent calculation formula where the levy only applies optimally when prices are high, but is immediately relaxed or suspended when market conditions are sluggish," explained Ade Holis.
However, data from the International Trade Center (ITC) shows that Indonesia's bargaining position is actually quite competitive. Throughout the period 2020-2024, the selling price of Indonesian coal was on average 32.6 percent below the world average price.
"This means that even if the export duty is increased by 5 percent, there is still a wide room for Indonesian coal producers to compete in the world market," he explained.
To strengthen the effectiveness of the policy, he added, the government must consider a tiered tariff structure that is in line with the movement of coal prices and quality.
This policy should also be integrated with the downstream agenda so that Indonesia does not continue to depend on the sale of raw materials. In addition, the mechanism for periodic evaluation is an absolute requirement for responding quickly to global market dynamics.
"With a more flexible and data-based approach, coal export duties can be an instrument that not only fills the state's coffers, but also directs Indonesia's energy sector towards a more resilient and sustainable structure," said Ade Holis.
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