Rupiah Predicted Weakening, US Shutdown Alert Market And Global Conflict

Curs Currency (Photo: Antara)

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Wednesday, October 22 is expected to weaken against the United States (US) dollar.

To note, citing Bloomberg, on Tuesday, October 21, the rupiah spot exchange closed down 0.07 percent to the level of Rp. 16,587 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed down at a price level of Rp. 16,589 per US dollar.

Currency observer Ibrahim Assuaibi said market participants continue to observe developments surrounding the ongoing closure of the US administration.

"The government's closure has entered its 21st day without a sign that it will end after senators failed for the 11th time completing a deadlock in the vote on Monday. The closure of the US government is now the third-longest funding hiatus in modern history," he said in his statement, quoted Wednesday, October 22.

In addition, geopolitical tensions are heating up again between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, as Israel launched airstrikes in retaliation for alleged violations of last night's ceasefire by Hamas, which threatened to end a recently signed peace treaty.

Ibrahim added that in Russia, Rosneft's Novokuibyshevsk refinery in the Volga region stopped processing primary crude oil after a drone strike.

"The attack on the Orenburg gas refinery forced Kazakhstan to cut production in the Karachaganak oil and gas condensate field by 25 percent to 30 percent," he said.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump hopes to reach a fair trade agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Ibrahim added that disputes over market rates, technology and access remain unresolved ahead of their planned meeting in South Korea next week.

Meanwhile, from within the country, Ibrahim said that President Prabowo Subianto is said to have the opportunity to revise the rules regarding the placement of foreign exchange results for exports of natural resources or DHE SDA 100 percent domestically. Previously, the government issued Government Regulation (PP) Number 8/2025.

The regulation stipulates that exporters are obliged to place their DHE SDA 100 percent for 12 months at home. However, recently President Prabowo has often evaluated the implementation of DHE SDA in several limited meetings (ratas).

Previously, President Prabowo was said to have not been satisfied with the impact of the DHE SDA on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves (cadev). The government highlighted that the implementation of the PP had not had a major impact on cadev.

For information, as of the end of September 2025, Bank Indonesia (BI) reported foreign exchange reserves of 148.7 billion US dollars. The amount decreased in three consecutive months, namely in June, July, and August 2025.

Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but closed lower in trading on Wednesday, October 22, 2025, in the price range of IDR 16,580 - IDR 16,610 per US dollar.