BI Is Estimated To Hold Interest Rates At 5 Percent In The RDG September 2025

Bank Indonesia (Photo: Doc. VOI)

JAKARTA - Bank Permata economist Josua Pardede estimates that Bank Indonesia will maintain its benchmark interest rate (BI-rate) at the level of 5.00 percent at the September 2025 Board of Governors' Meeting (RDG).

"We estimate that Bank Indonesia will maintain policy interest rates at the level of 5.00 percent in the September 2025 Board of Governors' Meeting (RDG), although the Fed has a wide enough space to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25bps at the FOMC September 2025 in line with the weakening of the US labor market," he said in his statement, quoted Wednesday, September 17.

Josua said that the decision to hold interest rates was mainly influenced by the need to maintain the stability of the Rupiah exchange rate.

He added, especially the political uncertainty after the big demonstration at the end of August 2025 and the cabinet reshuffle which replaced Finance Minister Sri Mulyani with Purbaya Yudhi Sadive was the main consideration.

"Under Purbaya's leadership, the direction of Indonesia's fiscal policy is estimated to continue to emphasize fiscal discipline as in the previous era, but with a stronger emphasis on pro-growth fiscal policies than just maintaining stability," he explained.

According to him, global investors are still waiting and see to assess further the direction of fiscal policy, causing limited foreign capital inflows and having an impact on pressure on the Rupiah exchange rate.

"Therefore, we think that Bank Indonesia will tend to be more patient in the RDG September 2025, although the space for BI-rate pruning is still relatively wide open," he concluded.