Global Oil Demand Weakens, August ICP Drops To 66.07 US Dollars Per Barrel

Illustration: Photo: Doc. ANTARA

JAKARTA - The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) set the average price of Indonesian crude oil or Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) in August 2025 at the level of 66.07 US dollars per barrel.

This figure is down from ICP July 2025 amounting to 68.59 US dollars per barrel. The determination of the ICP this month is contained in the Decree of the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Number 304.K/MG.03/MEM.M/2025 concerning the Price of Crude Oil in August 2025 dated September 10, 2025.

Director General of Oil and Gas Laode Sulaeman explained that the decline in ICP and major crude prices in the international market in August 2025 was influenced by a combination of increased US production and OPEC+ (supply surplus) as well as weakening demand for oil as the summer driving season ended.

"The potential for the global economic slowdown due to the imposition of US tariffs to a number of countries also plays a role in weakening crude prices," said Laode in Jakarta, Monday, September 15.

Lebih lanjut, Laode menjelaskan, terkait pasokan minyak, OPEC melaporkan produksi peningkatan produksi tahun 2025.

For the United States (US), there is a projected increase of 0.3 million barrels per year on year (yoy) to 22.1 million barrels per day, which comes from increasing well productivity across the bases.

As for China, the increase is projected at 34,000 barrels per day to 4.6 million barrels per day, which comes from offshore production in Bohai Bay and South China Sea.

Another factor that affected the decline in crude oil prices in August 2025 was the increase in the imposition of US import rates on India to 50 percent since August 27, 2025. This is because India continues to import oil from Russia, which makes the market worried about India's economic stability as one of the oil consumer countries," added Laode.

In addition, market concerns follow the US President's plan to dismiss the US Federal Reserve Governor.

This has the potential to end the independence of the US Central Bank which will result in the weakening of the FED's ability to maintain price stability which has consequences, such as increasing interest rates and instability of the US and global economy.

Untuk kawasan Asia Pasifik, penurunan harga minyak mentah selain disebabkan oleh faktor-faktor tersebut di atas, juga dipengaruhi oleh kehati-hatian kilang-kilang minyak di India dalam melakukan pembelian minyak mentah dari Rusia.

Hal tersebut dilakukan seiring pengenaan tambahan tarif dagang oleh AS dan menunjukkan preferensi pembelian minyak mentah arbitrase dari negara-negara Barat.

Tak hanya itu, sejumlah kilang di Asia juga memasuki periode pemeliharaan, sehingga berdampak pada penurunan konsumsi minyak di kawasan Asia.

Adapun perkembangan harga rata-rata minyak mentah utama pada Agustus 2025 dibandingkan Juli 2025 mengalami penurunan, sebagai berikut:

For the Asia Pacific region, the decline in crude oil prices, apart from being caused by these factors above, is also influenced by the caution of oil refineries in India in purchasing crude from Russia.

This is done in line with the imposition of additional trade rates by the US and showing preference for purchasing arbitrage crude oil from Western countries.

Not only that, a number of refineries in Asia are also entering a maintenance period, resulting in a decrease in oil consumption in the Asian region.

The development of the average price of major crude oil in August 2025 compared to July 2025 decreased, as follows:

- Brent dates fell by $2.78 per barrel from $70.99 per barrel to $68.21 per barrel.

- WTI (Nymex) fell by 3.22 US dollars per barrel from 67.24 US dollars per barrel to 64.02 US dollars per barrel.

- Brent (ICE) fell by 2.29 US dollars per barrel from 69.55 US dollars per barrel to 67.26 US dollars per barrel.

- OPEC basketball fell by 1.26 US dollars per barrel from 70.95 US dollars per barrel to 69.69 US dollars per barrel.

- On average, Indonesia's crude oil ICP fell by USD 2.52 per barrel from USD 68.59 per barrel to USD 66.07 per barrel.