The Indonesian Economy Until The End Of 2024 Will Be Supported By Regional Head Elections And Public Consumption

Indonesian economy (Photo: Antara)

JAKARTA - National economic growth until the end of 2024 is expected to reach 5.06 percent which will be driven by the performance of public consumption and regional head elections (pilkada) in the third quarter of 2024.

"The economy can still grow healthy in 2024 at 5.06 percent. Of course, we see that this is still on guard with the current condition of geopolitical challenges," said Bank Mandiri Head of Macroeconomic and Financial Market Research Dian Ayu Yustina in Mandiri Macroemic Outlook Tuesday, May 14, 2024.

According to Dian, Indonesia's economy is estimated to be quite resilient in facing global turmoil. With the completion of the series of stages of the presidential election, it will encourage the confidence of economic actors to expand. With the start of the pilkada stage, it will also provide a boost to consumption growth.

Dian added that in July 2024 it will also enter the new school year, which will provide encouragement to consumption performance.

"Actually, the outlook in the future will still be quite good, in July there will be spending related to education and regional elections at the end of the third quarter of 2024 towards the fourth quarter of 2024 which will also have the potential to provide topolation to consumption," he said.

According to Dian, the performance of the trade balance will not experience a surplus like in 2023. However, the increase in commodity prices will also boost export performance which leads to a trade balance surplus.

"Although there is a potential decline this year, commodity prices are starting to recover, mainly driven by CPO commodity prices, coal is starting to improve even though year to date has decreased," he said.

Based on data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), Indonesia's trade balance in March 2024 experienced a surplus of 4.47 billion US dollars. With this data, Indonesia's trade balance surplus has been successive for 47 months since May 2020.

The inflation in April 2024 reached 3 percent. This is inseparable from the increase in food prices. However, inflation is still in the inflation target in 2024, which is in the range of 2.5 percent plus minus 1 percent.