JAKARTA - Bank Permata economist Josua Pardede estimates that the trade balance in February 2024 will still record a surplus of 2.29 billion US dollars or an increase when compared to the previous month of 2.02 billion US dollars.
For information, the trade balance is categorized as a surplus because the export value is higher than imports.
Josua estimates that despite the monthly increase in commodity prices, export performance in February is expected to decline.
Export performance is estimated to contract by 2.70 percent month on month (mom) or contract on an annual basis of 6.34 percent year on year (yoy) in February 2024. This figure decreases when compared to January 2024 which contracted 8.34 percent mom or contracted 8.06 percent (yoy).
"Especially influenced by lower demand, especially from China due to the Lunar New Year holiday," said Josua to VOI, Thursday, March 14.
However, Josua estimates that the export contraction will tend to be more limited. This is supported by higher crude palm oil (CPO) and coal prices compared to January 2024, amid a weakening US dollar shown by the declining DXY index.
In addition, the Baltic Dry Index has increased, indicating an increase in global trade activity.
Meanwhile, in terms of imports, Josua estimates that it will grow significantly on an annual basis due to the low base effect.
"We estimate that the annual import rate in February 2024 will be around 11.08 percent (yoy), compared to 0.36 percent (yoy) in January 2024," he explained.
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Josua said this increase was caused by the low-base effect in February 2023, which was caused by a decrease in imports of Oil and Gas (Migas) due to lower oil prices.
However, the monthly import rate is estimated to decrease by 4.46 percent (mom) in February 2024, compared to January 2024 at around 3.13 percent (mom). This trend is in line with the decline in Indonesia's manufacturing PMI, which fell slightly from 52.9 to 52.7.
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