JAKARTA - The average ICP of Indonesian crude oil during November 2022 fell slightly by USD 1.60 to USD 87.50 per barrel from USD 89.10 per barrel in the previous month.
The determination of the ICP in November is stated in the Decree of the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Number 174.K/MG.03/DJM/2022 concerning the Price of Oil for the Indonesian Minister of Defense in November 2022, dated December 1, 2022.
"The average price of Indonesian crude oil for November 2022 is set at US $ 87.50 per barrel," reads the fourth dictum of the Ministerial Decree quoted on Friday, December 2.
Several factors that have influenced the decline in major crude prices in the international market, as quoted by the Executive Summary of the Indonesian Minister of Defense's Oil Price Team, include signals from the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates as an effort to tackle inflation, causing an increase in the US dollar exchange rate and lowering investor interest in the commodity market.
In addition, the increase in COVID-19 cases in China, which was the highest since March 2020, has prompted the Chinese government to impose a stricter zero COVID-19 policy, resulting in demonstrations in several Chinese regions protesting President Xi Jinping's zero COVID-19 policy. This condition causes market concerns about the decline in economic and industrial activity as well as the decline in crude consumption in the world's largest crude oil consumer country, according to the exsum of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources.
Regarding the world's crude demand, based on the OPEC report in November 2022, there was a revised decline in world crude demand projections for 2022 by 100,000 barrels per day to 99.57 million barrels per day to 99.4 million barrels per day compared to projections in the previous month.
Meanwhile, regarding the world's crude oil supply, based on the OPEC report in November 2022, Non-OPEC crude supplies in 2022 are projected to increase by 1.90 million barrels per day to 65.58 million barrels per day compared to 2021.
Other factors, based on the EIA Weekly Report (US Energy Information Administration), have increased stocks, especially the stock of US oil products in November 2022, including:
Gasoline rose by 7.2 million barrels to 213.8 million barrels compared to the previous month.
Distillate rose by 5.8 million barrels to 112.6 million barrels compared to the previous month.
Furthermore, based on an OPEC report in November 2022, there was a decline in the level of global refinery processing by 960,000 barrels per day as a result of the peak maintenance period of the refinery.
As for the Asia Pacific region, the decline in crude oil prices, apart from being caused by these factors, was also influenced by an increase in the export quota of Chinese oil products, which indicated a surplus in crude stockpiles due to the weakening demand for crude oil in the country.
The following is the development of the main oil price:
- Dated Brent fell by 1.66 US dollars per barrel from 93.33 US dollars per barrel to 91.67 dollars per barrel.
- WTI (Nymex) decreased by USD 2.64 per barrel from USD 87.03 per barrel to USD 84.39 per barrel.
- Brent (ICE) fell by USD 2.74 per barrel from USD 93.59 per barrel to USD 90.85 per barrel.
- OPEC basketball fell by 3.57 US dollars per barrel from 93.62 US dollars per barrel to 90.05 US dollars per barrel.
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