JAKARTA - Indef researcher Nailul Huda explained a number of impacts of the increase in online motorcycle taxi tariffs (ojol), namely triggering an increase in inflation, reducing gross domestic product (GDP), to increasing the number of poor people.
This is because the transportation sector is the second highest contributor to inflation after food, beverages, and tobacco.
"Our current inflation is quite high at 4.69 percent (August 2022). The increase in fuel and followed by an increase in transportation can increase inflation much higher. This is what we don't want," he said in a presentation on the release of the National Polling Institute survey entitled "The Increase in Online Ojek Tariffs in User's Eyes and Drivers" online quoted by Antara, Sunday, September 11.
Nailul said Indef had calculated that if the increase in ojol tariffs could trigger an increase in inflation by up to two percent, macro would reduce GDP to Rp1.76 trillion and cause national workers' salaries or wages to actually decrease by 0.0094 percent.
"In addition, reducing operating income by 0.0107 percent, there is a potential decrease in the number of workers by 14 thousand people and there is a potential increase in the number of poor people by 0.14 percent," he said.
Meanwhile, if the increase in ojol tariffs boosts national inflation to 0.5 percent, then the GDP reduction is predicted to be IDR 436 billion, labor wages decreased by 0.0006 percent, the potential decrease in the number of workers was only 869 people and the increase in the number of poor people was also relatively limited to 0.04 percent.
"This is relatively acceptable to our macroeconomic condition," he said.
Therefore, when previously the government planned to increase the online motorcycle taxi tariff by 30-45 percent, various groups vehemently criticized because it was feared that it could cause an increase in inflation, which resulted in it spreading to all fields.
"That's why when the issue will increase by 30-45 percent, we are very critical. We don't want this to be too high, causing our inflation to be high and the domino effect is everywhere. That's why we ask to recalculate because it is related to the impact of inflation that could occur," said Nailul.
The Ministry of Transportation (Kemenhub) has set an increase in online motorcycle taxi rates by 6-10 percent which took effect this Sunday. The tariff adjustment has gone through a thorough study so as not to reduce ojol passengers too much even though the tariff has been increased.
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