JAKARTA - In the midst of an economic condition that has not yet recovered, the consumption pattern at Christmas 2025 is held back unlike usual. And, this situation occurs in several countries, not only in Indonesia.
Market analyst Mintel has shown that consumers are holding back on consumption at Christmas this year. This phenomenon shows caution in spending amid economic pressure and uncertainty.
Mintel predicts more people will delay purchases in order to get last-minute deals.
Data from Mintel shows that a third or about 34 percent of consumers in the UK wait for promotions or discounts before buying Christmas gifts. Simply put, consumers in the UK prioritize affordability when shopping.
Not only that, two out of five respondents who took part in the survey also stated that they were not interested in shopping at Christmas 2025 because they were being frugal.
Savings when shopping for Christmas also occur in the United States. Although the majority of consumers still shop, 84 percent of them use frugal tactics by looking for special discounts. This indicates that consumers are much more careful and do not shop based on their desires at Christmas this year.
In the UK, Christmas is still considered a shopping moment. However, consumers in the country are overshadowed by feelings of concern about the cost of living and high taxes.
Based on Mintel's comparison, consumer confidence in their economic situation during the Christmas shopping season is relatively lower than their confidence at the beginning of 2025.
In order to spend Christmas money, consumers circumvent it by shopping early, precisely at the moment of Black Friday.
Black Friday is the Friday after the Thanksgiving celebration, which falls in the fourth week of November every year. This is a moment where various brands give massive discounts.
Usually, this discount moment lasts for several days. Although the Black Friday culture was born in the US, this strategy was then adapted in many countries, including western countries and even in Indonesia.
Still from Mintel, the survey shows that this year's Black Friday moment is used by consumers in western countries to shop for Christmas gifts. This is interesting because consumers usually start shopping for Christmas gifts in December, not November.
In the UK, for example, two-thirds of consumers use the Black Friday moment to buy Christmas presents. This is in line with the trend predicted a year ago, where 6 out of 10 consumers have already postponed their Christmas shopping time during Black Friday.
"This challenges retailers not only to stand out but also to create impactful moments after Black Friday," Mintel quoted.
Pay Later IncreasedAnother phenomenon seen at the end of the year shopping moment is an increase in credit purchases, especially the buy now pay later (BNPL) payment method.
According to data from Adobe, more than 10 billion US dollars in BNPL transactions at the end of the year 2025 shopping moment. Thus, it means an increase of nine percent compared to BNPL transactions in the same period last year.
This BNPL growth phenomenon also occurs in Indonesia. The Financial Services Authority (OJK) recorded that in the first half of 2025, the debt pay later in Indonesian consumers reached more than IDR 31.5 trillion. This debt is consolidated from more than 17 million consumers in Indonesia.
BNPL growth in Indonesia in 2025 is quite rapid. As of February, the growth of users of later pay has increased by more than 25 percent year on year. This figure is also predicted to continue to increase until the end of 2025.
This figure can be interpreted positively and negatively. On the one hand, this reflects the community's adaptation to digital financing. In addition, this trend also shows that the community still wants to consume relatively.
However, behind the ever-increasing graph, there are signs of danger that cannot be ignored. The number of BNPL dominated by the millennial and Z generation groups indicates that the purchasing power of the community is weak in the productive age group.
When purchasing power in the productive age group weakens, BNPL has a high risk of default. According to data as of January 2025, the ratio of problematic financing (non-performing financing or NPF) BNPL in financing companies rose to around 3.37 percent. This figure had dropped to around 2.95 percent in mid-2025, but analysts believe the decline could be temporary - especially ahead of the year-end consumption surge.
Risk of DefaultMeanwhile, the data credit bureau showed a more concrete picture. Until October 2024, the value of BNPL default loans had reached IDR 723.1 billion, from a total portfolio of nearly IDR 33.84 trillion, with around 2.44 million debtors.
In the midst of high BNPL growth, on December 15, 2025, OJK approved OJK Regulation (POJK) Number 32 of 2025 concerning the Implementation of Buy Now Pay Later. This regulation is not merely an administrative rule, but a signal of concern. BNPL can no longer be treated as an innovation without consequences.
"We want to ensure that BNPL growth remains healthy, sustainable, and does not sacrifice the stability of the financial services sector or the interests of consumers," said Head of the Department of Literacy, Financial Inclusion and Communication at the OJK, M. Ismail Riyadi.
Consumers, said Ismail, must be able to make financing decisions consciously and responsibly.
Like other holidays, this year's Christmas shopping moment can provide an overview of the economic situation, especially consumer confidence in the coming year.
Uncertainty and economic pressure are challenges. However, looking at credit growth, especially pay later, can be a marker that people's interest in shopping is still high.
This phenomenon must certainly be taken seriously by the government. On the one hand, the government must take important steps so that the pay later trend does not develop into a systemic problem. But on the other hand, this step must also be taken carefully so that purchasing power is not further eroded.
The English, Chinese, Japanese, Arabic, and French versions are automatically generated by the AI. So there may still be inaccuracies in translating, please always see Indonesian as our main language. (system supported by DigitalSiber.id)
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