JAKARTA - The moment of Christmas and New Year holidays that the public has always been waiting for this time is overshadowed by the threat of extreme weather. Rainfall in a number of regions in Indonesia is high, causing flooding.
The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) released a statement that the peak of the rainy season in Indonesia occurs in the range of December 2025 to January 2026. This has the potential to cause high to very high rainfall increases in a number of areas, such as Java, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara (NTB), East Nusa Tenggara (NTT), South Sulawesi, South Papua, and most of Kalimantan.
The BMKG's warning about extreme weather makes Indonesian people have to be extra vigilant because in the near future, many of them will travel to fill their vacation time.
"The period from December to February (DJF) is not only about the rainy season, but also the busy weather activity in our sea. It's like a highway during the homecoming, the atmosphere above Indonesia is also "densely crawling" by various wind phenomena that make the sea more turbulent," wrote BMKG on Instagram.
The Ministry of Transportation estimates that as many as 119.50 million people will travel during the Christmas and New Year holidays in 2025 and 2026. This figure jumped from the previous year.
"The survey results show that 42.01 percent of Indonesian residents, or 119.5 million people, plan to travel by the end of the year, an increase of 2.71 percent from the previous year," said Minister of Transportation Dudy Purwagandhi.
If you look further, in the potential for people to travel during the Christmas and New Year holidays, there has indeed been a spike in the last four years, or since the COVID-19 pandemic.
There are many factors that make people's interest in traveling this year experiencing a surge, ranging from relatively long holidays and coinciding with school holidays. In addition, the increasingly adequate transportation infrastructure conditions also encourage high public interest in traveling at the end of the year.
Dudy continued, the purpose of the trip is still dominated by Java Island. Central Java Province is predicted to have 20.23 million movements, followed by West Java with 16.83 million movements, and East Java with 16.61 million movements.
In addition, the city of Yogyakarta is also projected to become a favorite travel destination with an estimated 5.15 million movements. Followed by other tourist cities, such as Bandung, Malang, Bogor, and Denpasar.
However, the increasing intensity of people's travel at this Christmas and New Year holiday must be anticipated by all parties. Starting from the government, to the people who travel themselves. It is no longer about the potential for traffic congestion, but also related to extreme weather and the threat of hydrometeorological disasters that have the potential to hit a number of regions in the country.
Tropical Cyclone PhenomenonThe Geological Agency appeals to the public in a number of regions of Indonesia to increase vigilance against the potential for flash floods and landslides during the Christmas and New Year 2026 period. Head of the Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (PVMBG) Hadi Wijaya emphasized that the threat is closely related to extreme weather conditions.
Hadi assessed that the potential for disasters during the Nataru period this time was quite worrying, because it coincided with the peak of rainfall intensity.
Based on the BMKG weather dynamics mapping, there are three weather periods leading up to Christmas and New Year holidays this time. Heavy rain occurs in the range of 15-22 December 2025, rain with intensity tends to decrease in the period of 22-29 December, then rainfall increases again as the peak of the rainy season shifts to Java Island on 29 December 2025 to 10 January 2026.
This condition needs to be watched out for to anticipate the occurrence of heavy rain intensity, strong winds, high waves, and the indirect impact of tropical cyclone seeds that have the potential to disrupt transportation activities, both on land, sea, and air.
Tropical cyclones are storms with great strength, quoting the BMKG website. Tropical cyclones are accompanied by strong winds that rotate near their center and have wind speeds of more than 63 km/h.
According to Researcher from the Climate and Atmosphere Research Center of BRIN, Erma Yulihastin, climate change causes weather anomalies so that the emergence of cyclone seeds around Indonesia is more frequent. In theory, Indonesia which is on the equator should rarely be passed by tropical cyclones.
"Since Seroja in 2021, Indonesia is not free from tropical storms. Although in previous years, tropical storms have also appeared in Indonesia. What is the main cause? Yes, human activity. Since the 1980s, the industrial revolution, global climate change has been intense," said Erma.
The increase in temperature, he said, could reach an average of 1.5 degrees Celsius per month. The most direct impact is an increase in storm intensity. The first factor that can shake the country's economy.
"The presence of cyclone seeds and tropical cyclones also triggers extreme weather, such as continuous heavy rain, strong winds, and high waves," he continued.
The Importance of Risk MitigationTropical cyclones have a very big impact on the places they pass through. If a tropical cyclone is in the sea, the potential impact is in the form of high waves because it usually appears through a whirlpool first.
On land, strong winds can damage or destroy vehicles, buildings, bridges, and other objects. According to BMKG, this strong wind can make debris fly.
Storm surge or increased sea level due to tropical cyclones is also the worst impact that reaches the land.
From the record of tropical cyclones that have occurred globally, 90 percent of tropical cyclones are deadly. An example is what happened in Aceh, Sumatra, and West Sumatra earlier this month. To date, 1,016 people have died, 158,000 houses have been damaged, and 145 bridges have been damaged.
Erma explained that the situation in Sumatra could actually be anticipated so that there were not many casualties or severe damage to infrastructure. Because, the equipment to find out the presence of this cyclone seed is predicted.
Indonesia, said Erma, has two tools, namely Sadewa and Kamajaya, which can be developed into early warning systems for both long and short term. The incident in Sumatra has actually been seen for one to two months through monitoring of this equipment. In fact, some can be predicted one to six months in advance.
Unfortunately, according to Erma, Indonesia did not mitigate the disaster well so that a major disaster occurred as experienced by the people of Sumatra.
"This early warning system is the most decisive, because the effects are chain. Don't talk about mitigation, because if you talk about mitigation, it means you can't suppress the catastrophic weight. BRIN's role is strategic to fill the gap before a storm or anything happens," said Erma.
"We can reduce victims and damage if from the beginning of the early warning road, there is evacuation, mitigation is running. Because if you look at the energy of the storm it is small. There is a 1973 Flores cyclone that can be a lesson. There are chronology and historical records," he said.
In the midst of the grief of the disaster in Sumatra, and the warnings from BMKG, this Christmas and New Year holiday should be an effort to balance rationality between the desire to celebrate and remember the natural conditions. Not forgetting also to mutually strengthen each other, especially to the people affected by the disaster.
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