Study Shows The Effect Of Social Distancing On The Number Of COVID-19 Deaths

Illustrated photo (Logan Weaver / VOI)

JAKARTA - A mathematical model was developed by scientists at Imperial College, London, England. This mode indicates that if no social distancing measures are taken, the disease could kill as many as 40 million people worldwide.

However, this amount can be cut in half. The condition is that humans must succeed in reducing social contact by 40 percent. As for seniors, they have to reduce social interaction by up to 60 percent.

In projecting the health impact of the pandemic in 202 countries, researchers from the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team collected data on age-specific contact patterns and the severity of COVID-19.

Scientists at Imperial College also say that more aggressive measures could further reduce casualties. They warned all governments in the world to take challenging decisions.

Photo illustration (Unsplash)

These challenging decisions include how aggressively a government is able to impose social distancing policies and how long it will be able to take these steps. And all decisions must be made within the next weeks and months.

Scientists calculate, social distancing which is carried out more intensively and on a wide scale must be implemented early and sustainably. Assuming a 75 percent cut in social rates, scientists predict 38.7 million lives could be saved.

In a study published Friday, March 27, scientists included a number of scenarios, such as what would happen if the world did not take action for the new coronavirus, which has now infected more than 700,000 people and caused more than 40,000 deaths.

"The only approach that can prevent health system failure in the coming months is likely to be the intensive social distancing measures that are currently being implemented in many of the countries most affected by COVID-19," said the study, reported by the South China Morning Post, Thursday April 2.

"These interventions may need to be maintained at a certain level, along with higher levels of surveillance and quicker isolation measures," he added.

Social distancing (Raga Granada / VOI)

Projections from Imperial College also suggest that high-income countries will be better able to reduce mortality and the burden on health systems. However, this can happen if they adopt more stringent social distancing measures.

Scientists argue that demographics and better health care resources in richer countries are contributing to the impact of COVID-19. The study also says that intensive social distancing is likely to have the greatest impact when implemented early.

In addition, social distancing also needs to be maintained to some extent until an effective vaccine or cure is available. However, the government must also consider the sustainability of these social distancing measures. This study does not account for the broader social and economic costs of strict social distancing rules.

"Our analysis highlights the challenging decisions facing all governments in the coming weeks and months, but shows the extent to which swift, decisive and collective action can now save millions of lives," the researchers added.

A separate study by economists from the University of Pennsylvania, ShanghaiTech University, and the Chinese University of Hong Kong, estimated that there would be 65 per cent more cases of COVID-19 in China's 347 cities, if the city of Wuhan was not locked down.

However, the lockdown for some areas or social distancing controls can be very complicated for the authorities. This is because they also have to consider public sentiment and economic pressures.