BMKG: El Nino 2026 has the potential to be very strong, while the rainy season is not significant.

DOK/ANTARA FOTO/Darryl Ramadhan/agr

JAKARTA - The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) stated that El Nino 2026 has reached a strong category and still has the potential to increase to a very strong one, so it risks triggering a drier and longer dry season in a number of regions of Indonesia.

In the National Dialogue held by the Ministry of PPN/Bappenas, the Head of BMKG Teuku Faisal Fathani said based on the results of BMKG monitoring, El Nino currently has an ENSO index of +1.59 which places it in the strong category.

"Based on the results of BMKG monitoring, the current El Nino condition has been in the strong category indicated by the sea surface temperature anomaly in the Nino 3.4 region. We use the data for the period of May, June, and July which shows El Nino with the ENSO index of +1.59 is in a strong position that has the potential to be very strong," said Teuku dilansirr ANTARA, Tuesday, August 4.

He explained that BMKG had warned of the potential of El Nino since mid-March 2026, when the phenomenon was still projected to be in the moderate category.

Furthermore, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on June 2 determined that El Nino was active.

According to him, El Nino causes rainfall in some parts of Indonesia to decrease so that the dry season becomes drier and lasts longer than normal climatic conditions.

Rainfall in August to September 2026 is estimated to be in the low to very low category. Meanwhile, Indonesia is expected to enter the rainy season in mid-October 2026 so that the influence of El Nino on rainfall in Indonesia will gradually weaken.

Teuku explained that El Nino, which began to be active in June 2026, is expected to last for about nine to 12 months or until around May 2027. However, this duration does not mean that Indonesia will experience a dry season throughout the period.

"Once the rainy season occurs, the influence of El Nino in Indonesia is not significant," he said.

BMKG also noted that the impact of El Nino was not evenly distributed throughout Indonesia.

The areas south of the equator, such as East Nusa Tenggara, West Nusa Tenggara, Bali, Java Island, and southern Sumatra are expected to experience a drier and longer dry season than the climatological average.

Meanwhile, areas such as the west coast of Sumatra and northern Kalimantan are not expected to experience a significant decrease in rainfall because they have different rainfall patterns.

Teuku said El Nino has the potential to affect various sectors, ranging from agriculture, clean water supply, reservoir and irrigation management, forest and land fires, energy, health, fisheries, to people's economic activities.

Therefore, he said, BMKG together with relevant ministries and agencies has taken anticipatory steps over the past few months, including through weather modification operations to fill dams that have experienced a decrease in water capacity and support efforts to prevent forest and land fires.