JAKARTA - The Executive Director of Aljabar Strategic Indonesia, Arifki Chaniago, assessed that the discourse of merger or unification between the Gerindra Party and the NasDem Party would change the national power configuration and open new uncertainties in national politics.
He revealed that the merger or merger of two major parties would almost certainly give birth to new dynamics, including the potential for the strengthening of internal factions. Historical experience shows that key figures such as Prabowo Subianto and Surya Paloh, who both have a background in the Golkar Party, have actually built new political vehicles - the Gerindra Party and the NasDem Party - in response to the harsh competition and tug-of-war between factions within the Beringin Party.
"This means that if the two entities born from the fragmentation experience are reunited, the potential for the reproduction of internal conflicts is not impossible in a new form," Arifki said in his statement, Sunday, April 19.
"Fusing is not only uniting forces, but also interests. That's where factions will emerge, and this can affect the direction of strategic decisions, including in determining presidential support," he continued.
He explained that NasDem in the 2024 election has a progressive tendency by carrying the issue of change. This character has the potential to undergo adjustments if it is in a larger power block.
In this context, NasDem faces a strategic dilemma, either maintaining its role as a carrier of alternatives, or transforming into a part of the mainstream of power.
If the merger discourse is realized, the opportunity for NasDem to utilize the zero-percent threshold scenario in the 2029 presidential election is also potentially closed.
Arifki emphasized that if they stayed in the power bloc, the space to carry alternative figures such as Anies Baswedan would be limited.
However, if it chooses to leave, NasDem must be able to build a new political base outside of power as a supply for 2029.
"In the end, the discourse on the merger of Gerindra and NasDem is not only about consolidating power, but also opens up new uncertainties in the national political map, including Anies' future in the 2029 presidential contest," he said.
The discourse of the merger of Gerindra and NasDem itself was denied by the Chairman of the DPP of the NasDem Party, Willy Aditya.
Although in the past there has indeed been a merger of parties, namely Islamic parties into the PPP, while nationalist parties became the PDI-P, the General Chair of the NasDem Party only submitted a political block.
He revealed that Surya Paloh offered a political block so that the government's policy struggles would be a breath of fresh air and not transactional, because currently political cooperation between parties is considered to be minimalist.
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