JAKARTA - The International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Bank Group warn that fuel and fertilizer prices could remain high for a long time.
According to them, prices will remain high even if the flow of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal, citing supply chain disruptions and delays in restoring global commodity flows.
In a joint statement, the three institutions said the impact of the war in the Middle East was "substantial, global, and highly asymmetric", disproportionately affecting energy importers, particularly low-income countries.
They said the shock had driven up the price of oil, gas and fertilizer, raising concerns about food security and job losses, while some producers in the region were also suffering major losses in export earnings.
The statement said shipments through the Strait of Hormuz were not yet normal and warned that even after the flow returned to normal, it would take time for global supplies of key commodities to recover to pre-conflict levels.
It is also stated that the lack of important inputs caused by supply disruptions can spread to the energy, food, and other sectors, while forced displacement, sluggish employment, and declining travel and tourism may also take time to recover.
"We share our latest assessment, ahead of the release of the IEA's monthly Oil Market Report and the IMF's World Economic Outlook on Tuesday, April 14. We also discuss the situation of the countries most affected by the shock and the response of our institutions," the statement said.
"Our teams are working closely together, including at the country level, to leverage each other's expertise and help countries through tailored policy advice and, in the case of the IMF and the World Bank, financial support if needed," the statement said.
The institutions said they would continue to coordinate support for member countries and monitor the impact of the war on the energy market and the global economy.
The statement stressed the strict monitoring of the impact of the war on energy, the global economy, and each country, as well as the coordination of responses and support for members, in cooperation with other international organizations to encourage resilient recovery, stability, growth, and job creation.
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