Democracy in the VUCA Era Tested Amid the United States–Israel vs Iran War

State Administrative Law Expert Radian Syam (Ist)

JAKARTA - Expert in State Law Radian Syam assessed that the escalation of tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran once again tested the foundation of the global order based on international law. He questioned whether the world was still based on the rule of law or began to shift towards power dominance.

In his latest book titled Sailing Democracy in the VUCA Era (2025), Radian Syam emphasized that democracy today does not sail in calm seas. He is moving in the midst of waves of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA) that form a new global landscape. Rapidly developing geopolitical conflicts show that international stability is being seriously tested.

Radian said that inter-state conflicts are not a new phenomenon, but the character of conflicts in today's era is different because the escalation is very fast and has a systemic impact. In a matter of hours, military and diplomatic responses can change the configuration of the region and trigger global instability, including in the energy, trade, and financial markets.

"When norms are respected, the law becomes an anchor of order. But when norms are interpreted unilaterally, what is strengthened is the logic of power," Radian said in his statement, March 2.

He explained, in the perspective of legal theory which refers to Hans Kelsen's thinking, law is a system of norms that obtain validity from a consistent hierarchical structure. In the international context, the basic norm is reflected in respect for state sovereignty, the prohibition of the arbitrary use of force, and the obligation to settle disputes peacefully.

According to Radian, claims of self-defense and national security reasons are often in a gray area between legal legitimacy and strategic calculations. He emphasized that in modern international law, sovereignty is not only a matter of rights, but also responsibilities.

"The state does have the right to defend itself, but it is still bound by humanitarian law and human rights principles. In a crisis situation, global leadership is required to be able to balance security and legitimacy," he said.

Radian also highlighted Indonesia's position in the global dynamics. He emphasized that active free foreign policy is not passive neutrality, but an independent and constructive attitude to encourage dialogue and peaceful resolution.

According to him, commitment to multilateralism and a rules-based order is in line with the constitutional mandate to help create world order based on independence, lasting peace, and social justice.

He reminded that if the world moves towards a power-based order, developing countries risk becoming arenas of contestation of global interests without sufficient bargaining power.

"History shows that lasting peace is not the result of mere power dominance, but a normative agreement that is respected together. The rule of law is the anchor so that democracy is not overturned by geopolitical storms," said Radian.