Polish Foreign Minister Warns of the Economic Impact of 'Polexit' from the European Union

ILLUSTRATION UNSPLASH/Egor Komarov

JAKARTA - Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski in his annual speech to parliament warned that Poland's exit from the European Union (EU) or "Polexit" would depress Poland's GDP, wages and exports and weaken national security.

Sikorski outlined the government's foreign policy priorities for 2026, placing EU and NATO membership as the two main pillars of Poland's security and prosperity.

"Be careful with your dreams - dreams may come true," he said, responding to political forces calling for a looser relationship with Brussels.

According to estimates presented during the speech, Poland's exit from the EU would reduce GDP by between 4 percent and 7 percent over five to 10 years, cut wages by up to 8 percent and reduce meat and dairy exports by 45 percent to 50 percent.

As reported by ANTARA from Anadolu, Thursday, February 26, Sikorski noted that Poland exports goods worth around €350 billion (Rp6.931 trillion) every year, almost three-quarters of which go to the EU market.

"The national interest of Poland is to remain in the European Union and to help shape it. Outside the EU, Poland will be poorer, weaker, and less secure," Sikorski said, adding that sovereignty is strengthened, not weakened, by participation in EU decision-making.

He said the country was already facing sabotage, cyberattacks, and disinformation campaigns linked to Moscow, and warned against political complacency.

"We see the threat," he said, citing government figures showing thousands of cyberattacks on Polish institutions every day, as well as recent incidents involving Russian drones and acts of sabotage.

Reiterating Poland's strong support for Kiev, Sikorski argued supporting Ukraine is not a charitable act, but a matter of national interest.

"A free and Western-based Ukraine increases Poland's security," he said, warning that Ukraine's defeat would worsen Poland's strategic environment.

The minister emphasized that EU and NATO membership remains an integral element of Poland's security architecture, rejecting narratives that portray Brussels or Berlin as a threat to national sovereignty.

"The European Union helps manage relations with Germany. We must not create enemies in the West. The real threat comes from the East," Sikorski said, arguing that common rules and institutions limit power and prevent domination by stronger countries.

His comments appeared aimed at countering nationalist rhetoric that has gained traction in some of the opposition and to reassure European partners of Warsaw's commitment to deeper cooperation in defense, energy and industrial policy.

The speech on Thursday was closely watched for domestic political reasons. Polish President Karol Nawrocki attended the session, which followed weeks of public tensions between the government and the presidency over the EU's defense funding mechanism and national security policy.

Sikorski also used the opportunity to defend the government's approach to relations with key partners, including the US, while warning that the transatlantic relationship can no longer be taken for granted.

He argued that Europe must take greater responsibility for its own security, including through increased defense spending and industrial cooperation.