Lancet Study Finds Gaza Death Toll 50 Percent Higher

A dead civilian in Gaza. (Wikimedia Commons/Fras Media Corporation/Saleh Najm and Anas Sharif)

JAKARTA - The number of deaths in the Israeli war in the Gaza Strip, Palestine is more than 50 percent higher than the figure published by the Ministry of Health of the enclave, according to a report published on Wednesday.

The Lancet report recorded 75,200 deaths from violence up until the start of last year, while the ministry's reported figure was 49,090.

A total of 16,300 non-violent deaths were also recorded during the period covered by the medical journal study - from October 7, 2023, when Hamas-led attacks on Israel killed about 1,200 people, to January 5, 2025.

Israel has consistently disputed the ministry's figures - which put the current death toll at more than 72,000 - claiming the numbers are inflated, although they are widely accepted by the United Nations and international NGOs.

There are several challenges in producing accurate numbers. First, the bodies must be found because thousands of people are still missing or buried in the ruins without enough equipment allowed to enter the area to retrieve them. Then, the identity of the bodies must be confirmed, the report said.

"The bodies can be mutilated to the point that they are difficult to recognize or there may be no surviving family members to confirm their identities," according to the report, as reported by The National (19/2).

"Documentation must be created (physical documents often burn or are lost and electronic systems are difficult to access), and records must be delivered in the context of intermittent electricity, communication outages, and evacuation," he continued.

In Gaza, nine out of 10 people have been displaced more than once during the war. This has damaged the social network that would help in confirming and reporting deaths.

Israeli bombing has damaged or destroyed every hospital in the Gaza Strip, impeding access to paper records and creating "discontinuity in reporting," the report said.

The report considers indirect deaths as deaths caused by the deterioration of the health system and living conditions - a byproduct of direct physical violence. But the classification is not always clear.

"People who die of sepsis after an injury, kidney failure after a devastating blast wound, or those who die because they cannot access surgery - because of resource limitations, inability to reach a hospital, or lack of surgeons - can be in a gray zone between direct and indirect classifications of death," the report said.

The lack of medical personnel means that operations must be performed without anesthesia, or amputations without the right tools. This results in major infections and the need for re-operations.

Meanwhile, doctors in Gaza have been killed and detained by Israel, reducing the number of specialists available and limiting the aid available.

By not including these cases as "direct deaths", the number of fatalities is underestimated.

Since January 2025, when the period covered by the report ends, Israel has continued to attack the area, including after a ceasefire was reached in October.

The Health Ministry said 603 people have been killed in Israeli attacks since the ceasefire was agreed.