JAKARTA - The beginning of 2026 comes not as a usual calendar change, but as a marker for the world's power map moving into a harder and more open phase.
What has been read as a rivalry of influence, now appears in the form of steps that directly touch the heart of the politics and economy of other countries.
From the Caribbean to the Arctic, from tanker lanes to mineral fields, the geopolitical stage is shifting to spaces that were once considered marginal, but are in fact determining the future of technology, energy, and global security.
The United States' move in Venezuela is the most striking example. The operation Absolute Resolveyang was launched by Donald Trump on January 3, 2026, with the support of massive air power, as reported by various international media, resulted in the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro in Caracas.
This event not only triggered an international political reaction, but also reopened a long-standing debate about the limits between enforcing national interests and respecting state sovereignty.
In many capitals, the issue being discussed is not merely who wins and who loses, but rather what precedent is being set for the future of relations between countries.
Reviewed by ANTARA, geopolitical observer and Deputy Analyst for Public Relations of the Defense Information Bureau of the Indonesian Ministry of Defense, Colonel Dedy Yulianto, read the event as a confirmation of energy to return to the main seat of global politics.
In his view, Venezuela is not just about the regime or ideological orientation, but about the world's largest crude oil reserves, whose position determines the direction of supply and prices on the international market.
He assessed that Washington's move was also aimed at slowing the pace of China and Russia's influence in Latin America, which in recent years has entered through energy and infrastructure investments.
Behind the strategic calculations, there is another layer that is rarely highlighted outside of technical reports.
The power vacuum in Venezuela could potentially trigger new migration flows, social pressure in neighboring countries, and economic uncertainty in a region that has long grappled with stability issues.
Within days, markets reacted. Oil prices swung sharply, while shipping and exporting companies began to recalculate their calculations. Insurance premiums rose, travel time was extended, and the risk of delays entered as a new variable in contracts.
The tension did not stop on land. On January 7, 2026, the seizure of a Russian-flagged tanker near Iceland brought the North Atlantic into the world spotlight.
The sea lanes, which are usually read as economic infrastructure, are now treated like a maneuvering space. Ship routes, port stops, even loading and unloading schedules are starting to be calculated not only from the cost side, but from the security and political pressure side.
For Europe, this condition is not just a security issue, but also a matter of energy supply and industry sustainability. For shipping companies, this means soaring insurance premiums and increasingly unpredictable distribution schedules.
The Scramble for Greenland
Colonel Dedy described the area, now like an open surveillance room, where the economy and the military run side by side.
On the one hand, countries are trying to keep the flow of goods and energy smooth. On the other hand, economic channels, from ports to supply contracts, are beginning to be used as instruments of political pressure.
For international trade systems that are still trying to recover from the shocks of the pandemic and previous conflicts, this situation adds a new layer of uncertainty.
The world's attention then jumped far north, to Greenland. The giant island in the Arctic region is not only about missile defense maps, but also about the future of the technology industry.
Under its ice layer are rare earth minerals that are now being hunted by the electric vehicle industry, battery manufacturers, and defense contractors. These raw materials determine who will control the technology chain in the next decade.
As the Trump administration accelerated its moves to strengthen its influence in the region, many analysts read signals that global competition was no longer just about oil and gas, but also about the raw materials of future technologies.
Greenland's internal political dynamics, including the discourse on independence from Denmark, add to the complexity. Behind the discussion on the right to self-determination, there are hidden interests of major countries that see the Arctic as a new economic and security frontier.
Questions about the consistency of alliance commitments, including within NATO, have emerged as maneuvers in the region, which have been relatively quiet from the public eye, have intensified.
The impact of this series of events is beginning to be felt in inter-state relations and the dynamics of global alliances.
The United States has shown a tendency to strengthen its unilateral approach, while Russia and China have tightened their cooperation in the areas of energy, technology, and defense.
In Europe, the debate on strategic autonomy is back in force. Dependence on one energy source or one security umbrella is now read as vulnerability, not comfort.
Impact on Indonesia
For countries outside the circle of great powers, the implications are real even though they are thousands of kilometers away.
For Indonesia, the impact is direct and measurable. When the benchmark Brent oil price moves in an upward range of more than 1 percent to the range of 64.82 US dollars per barrel, while WTI strengthens above 60 US dollars per barrel, pressure on energy subsidy costs re-strengthens and the fiscal space in the state budget becomes narrower.
On the other hand, global volatility also affects the rupiah exchange rate. In a situation of geopolitical uncertainty, capital flows tend to move to safe assets, and the rupiah is again tested above the level of Rp16,700 per US dollar.
In the diplomatic rooms of Jakarta, these issues are beginning to be read as part of medium-term economic planning.
Energy supply stability, trade partner diversification, and strengthening regional cooperation are no longer merely normative agendas. ASEAN, for example, faces the challenge of keeping the region open and stable amid global interests.
At the same time, opportunities are opening up to play a more active role. As tensions rise between great powers, middle powers have room to offer bridges, not walls.
Regional cooperation, multilateral forums, and economic diplomacy are tools to keep competition from completely drowning out common interests.
The changes that took place in early 2026 show that diplomacy is no longer limited to the negotiating table, but takes place on shipping lanes, in oil fields, in the Arctic region, and in commodity markets.
It is where economics and geopolitics lock in, forming a new landscape that demands resilience, agility, and clarity of direction.
For Indonesia, the test will soon be seen in concrete decisions, including attitudes at the next ASEAN forum and the direction of energy policy in the next few months.
Then also how strong the state budget is able to absorb global price fluctuations, without prompting adjustments to energy policies or additional pressure on domestic inflation.
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