One-third Of COVID-19 Cases In The United States Are Currently Caused By The Omicron BA.2 Subvariant
President Joe Biden and the First Lady review Brookland Middle School after face-to-face learning is allowed back in the United States. (Wikimedia Commons/The White House)

JAKARTA - About one in three cases of COVID-19 infection in the United States is now caused by the Omicron BA.2 subvariant of the coronavirus, government data on Tuesday also showed overall infections were still declining from January's record high.

Despite the emergence of a highly contagious subvariance also seen in other countries, US health experts say a major wave of new infections here seems unlikely.

US COVID-19 infections have receded sharply since January, although a resurgence in parts of Asia and Europe has raised concerns that one will follow in the United States given the previous pattern over the two years of the pandemic.

In the Northeast, including New Jersey, New York and Massachusetts, the Omicron BA.2 subvariant now accounts for more than half of cases, according to data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

It accounted for 35 percent of US infections for the week ended March 19, the CDC said. That compared with 22.3 percent for the week ended March 12, which was revised down from 23.1 percent, according to a CDC model that estimates the proportion of variants in circulation.

Meanwhile, the top US infectious disease official, Dr. Anthony Fauci told a Washington Post event on Tuesday he doesn't believe there will be a major spike any time soon, unless something changes dramatically."

However, Fauci noted that cases in the United States generally lag about three weeks behind the UK. "So if we're going to see improvement, we should start seeing it within the next week or so," he said.

Separately, Daniel Kuritzkes, chief of the infectious diseases division at Boston's Brigham and Women's Hospital, said there was no evidence that an increase in the Omicron BA.2 subvariance was causing an increase in cases of infection.

"I think the only concern and where people need to stay vigilant is, because we've relaxed a lot of the restrictions around the wearing of masks and gatherings, providing a potential opportunity for BA.2 or any of its variants to gain a foothold," Kuritzkes said, cited from Reuters, March. 23

The Omicron BA.2 subvariant is more infectious than the Omicron BA.1 variant causing a massive winter wave, the World Health Organization (WHO) said. However, it does not appear to cause more severe disease, and preliminary data suggest BA.1 infection offers strong protection against reinfection with BA.2, the WHO said.

As of March 19, the seven-day moving average of US COVID-19 cases was 27,747, down nearly 18 percent from the previous week.

Most of the country is considered to be in low transmission of COVID-19, according to new CDC guidelines introduced last month, which emphasize hospital capacity over case numbers. And most people think they no longer need to wear masks indoors.

Meanwhile, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, which updated its closely watched forecast Monday, does not expect a major spike in US coronavirus cases in the coming weeks.

"However, it is possible that a rapid return to pre-COVID-19 behavior and the spread of BA2 could lead to an increase in the number of cases in a short period of time," tweeted Ali Mokdad, professor at the University of Washington.

Testing saliva samples for the coronavirus has proven to be an effective early gauge of the impending rise in COVID-19 cases, sometimes finding spikes in new infections days or even weeks ahead of human testing data.

Biobot Analytics has so far been testing saliva viruses across the United States since March 2020, and is currently monitoring more than 200 sites in approximately 40 states.

"As of now, there is no evidence of waves in the saliva data," said Mariana Matus, chief executive of Biobot Analytics.

"Just to give you some context, viral levels in saliva increased about 100-fold faster during the first Omicron wave in December, compared to now," Matus said.

It is known, New York City is moving forward by 'relaxing' more mitigation plans. Mayor Eric Adams said Tuesday that masks will now be optional for children ages 2 to 4 in schools and daycare facilities starting April 4. Children under 5 years of age are not eligible for COVID vaccination.

The seven-day positivity rate at New York City's schools was 0.15 percent last week, according to the city's Department of Education. The city's seven-day positivity rate for all ages was 21% at the peak of the last spike.

"Our school has been one of the safest places for our children since the start of the pandemic," Adams said in a statement.

"And we will only remove this requirement if science says it's safe to do so."


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