Lifting Travel Restrictions, China Is Threatened To Record Daily Infections Of COVID-19 Up To 637.155 Cases

Illustration of a health check during the COVID-19 pandemic at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, China. (Wikimedia Commons/Ptrump16)

JAKARTA - China could face more than 630.000 COVID-19 infections a day if it lifts its zero-tolerance policy by lifting travel restrictions, according to a study by Peking University mathematicians.

In a report published in China CDC Weekly by the Chinese Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, mathematicians say China cannot afford to lift travel restrictions, without more efficient vaccinations or specialized care.

Using data for August from the United States, Britain, Spain, France, and Israel, the mathematicians assessed the potential outcome if China adopted the same pandemic control tactics as those countries.

China's daily new cases will reach at least 637.155 if it adopts the United States' pandemic strategy, the report said, citing Reuters, November 29.

And daily cases will reach 275.793 if China takes the same approach as the UK and 454.198 if it imitates France.

"These estimates reveal the real possibility of a colossal outbreak that will almost certainly place an unattainable burden on the medical system," the report said.

"Our findings have raised a clear warning that at the moment we are not prepared to embrace an 'open' strategy that relies solely on the herd immunity hypothesis, caused by vaccinations advocated by certain western countries," the report said.

Mathematicians warn that their estimates are based on basic arithmetic calculations. More sophisticated models are needed to study the evolution of the pandemic if travel restrictions are lifted.

To note, China has maintained a policy of zero tolerance for COVID-19, saying the importance of containing local cases when they are found outweighs the disruption caused by efforts to trace, isolate and treat the infected.

China reported 23 confirmed cases of the new coronavirus for November 27, down from 25 the day before, its health authorities said on Sunday.

While previously reported, the World Health Organization (WHO) on Friday designated the new COVID-19 variant detected in South Africa, the Omicron variant with a large number of mutations as a "concern", prompting several countries to impose travel restrictions.