Indostrategic Survey: Prabowo Subianto's Consistently High Electability 'Dipepet' Anies Baswedan
JAKARTA - The Institute for Democracy and Strategic Affairs (IndoStrategic) released the results of a national survey entitled "Measuring the Electability of Potential Presidential Candidates, Political Parties and Aspirations for Changes in the 2024 Election System", Tuesday, August 3.
From a number of potential presidential candidates for 2024, the top 5 figures with Popularity and Likeability that topped the survey include Prabowo Subianto (92.8 percent), Sandiaga Uno (86.5 percent), Anies Baswedan (80.8 percent) , Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (75.7 percent) and Ridwan Kamil (64.3 percent).
Meanwhile, if the general election were to be held today, the top 10 figures with the highest electability of respondents' choices include Prabowo Subianto (17.5 percent), Anies Baswedan (17.0 percent), Ganjar Pranowo (8.1 percent), Ridwan Kamil (7.0 percent), Sandiaga Uno (6.8 percent).
Followed by the next positions, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (6.4 percent), Tri Rismaharini (4.1 percent), Gatot Nurmantyo (1.8 percent), Khofifah Indar Parawansa (1.8 percent) and Erick Thohir (1.0 percent). .
"Compared to other potential 2024 presidential candidates, Prabowo Subianto's popularity, likability and electability still consistently dominates public perceptions of potential leaders in the upcoming 2024 presidential election," said Indostrategic Executive Director Khoirul Umam, Tuesday, August 3.
The maintenance of Prabowo's popularity and electability, said Khoirul, is most likely influenced by the post-election effect. Where Prabowo has invested his name in 3 presidential elections (2009, 2014, 2019).
"So his name is relatively well preserved in public political memory," he said.
However, Khoirul continued, Prabowo's name is now being affixed more tightly by Anies Baswedan, which may be influenced by high publicity factors related to the role of the Governor of DKI in public discourse and reporting on the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Khoirul said that the electoral advantage during the pandemic (post-pandemic electoral leverage) was also enjoyed by a number of regional heads and other public officials such as Ridwan Kamil, Ganjar Pranowo, Tri Rismahairini, Khofifah Indar Parawansa and others.
On the other hand, of the top 10 potential presidential candidates in 2024, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY) is the only figure from outside the government whose popularity and electability are relatively maintained.
"If the top 9 figures are drawn, AHY is the only political figure who is not in public office, but is still able to maintain his position in the ranks of potential presidential candidates in 2024," said Khoirul.
To note, the survey was conducted on 23 March-1 June 2021 in 34 provinces throughout Indonesia through a face to face interview approach, while still trying to prioritize health protocols during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The sampling method is done through Multi-Stage Random Sampling with a sample of 2400 respondents, with a confidence level of 95 percent and a margin of error level of 2 percent.