Indef Study Proves Indonesia Cannot Ease PSBB
JAKARTA - The results of a study by the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) show that Indonesia has not been able to implement relaxation or easing of large-scale social restrictions (PSBB). In fact, what the government should do is to tighten the PSBB.
One of the research teams, Muhammad Yoga Permana said, there would be a decrease in the positive rate of COVID-19 if the Indonesian government tightened the PSBB for one month.
"Moreover, in other provinces that are not the epicenter, with the tightening we will be able to reduce it to positive zero. If what the PSBB is doing is partial (at this time), nothing will change. If it is loosened it will be very dangerous. It will increase by 12 thousand cases over the next one month , "said Yoga, in a video conference with journalists, Tuesday, June 2.
As for the details of the 12 thousand cases, the first is the scenario if the PSBB is tightened, then the total number of cases will be increased from 0 to 1,735 cases. In Jakarta the number is 0-518. Meanwhile, East Java is a new distribution area, namely 0-124.
If what the government does is partial PSBB (current conditions), then the total number of cases will be 3,670-6,323. In Jakarta the number is 1,614-2,085 cases. Meanwhile, East Java 372-663 cases.
"360 cases of death over the next 1 month or 30 days," he said.
However, Yoga continued, if the government enforces the PSBB easing, the number of cases will reach 8,224-12,633. In Jakarta 3,160-12,633, while East Java 878-1375 and 724 cases of death.
"If we compare the movement of the community vs the transmission of scenario and reality cases, it turns out that the reality data shows that today's data (June 2) from 15 days ago has nearly 10 thousand cases. We should be sad. If we predict the next 30 days will be higher. "It's only been 15 days and has entered the PSBB easing indicator," he explained.
Yoga said, even though the government has not decided to carry out relaxation or easing, it has been concluded that in 15 days, the PSBB has loosened by itself.
"Just not loosening it is already loose, especially when the decision was made. We are still consistently unable to control the 6 percent of the positive cases," he said.
When will the Government Implement PSBB Relaxation?Yoga said that the study conducted by Indef together with researchers from various health, economic, political and other backgrounds shows that Indonesia has not been able to implement the PSBB easing.
"Not now. In fact, it must be tightened. Empirical data shows that the PSBB is actually getting looser. Do not let us or the government become talkative when other countries have relaxed. Indonesia is still far from easing. We are dangerous," he said.
According to Yoga, other countries that have implemented relaxation or relaxation have also received criticism from their citizens. One of them is South Korea, although the number of cases increased by only 1 percent, a second wave of COVID-19 spread emerged.
"Singapore was also dangerous yesterday to be criticized. If you want to do relaxation, it must be based on a clear study. Our study says Indonesia cannot do that," he explained.
As is well known, the discourse on the easing of the PSBB has emerged. Moreover, until now, there is no plan to extend or tighten the PSBB. Instead, there is a way to implement new norms.
President Joko Widodo said some time ago that the government had not decided to ease the PSBB during the current outbreak of the corona virus or COVID-19. He said the government had already made a scenario regarding the easing, but its implementation had not yet been decided because it was still waiting for the right time.
"I want to emphasize that there has been no policy for easing the PSBB. Because it should not appear later, it is wrong to catch the public that the government is loosening the PSBB. Not yet. So there is no policy for easing the PSBB," said Jokowi.
In determining this easing decision, he said, the government continues to monitor conditions in the community and existing data regarding the spread of COVID-19 in Indonesia. "Let everything be clear because we have to be careful not to make the wrong decision," he said.