UI Expert Predicts COVID-19 To Slope In August-September, If 3M, 3T And Vaccination Are Intensively Conducted

JAKARTA - Expert and member of the research team of the Faculty of Public Health, University of Indonesia (FKUI) Muhammad N Farid predicts that positive cases of COVID-19 will decline in August-September. In June-July Farid predicts cases will rise significantly.

"So we will create a scenario for a decrease in February and an increase in June. If the increase in June continues, it means that the Emergency PPKM will not change people's behavior too much. So it will continue to increase, perhaps more than 25 thousand to 30 thousand a day in Jakarta, " said Farid in an online discussion quoted from Antara, Tuesday, July 13.

Based on data taken on July 12 yesterday, experts estimate that the number of cases will still rise and only decline in August - September 2021.

"For example, it is hoped that today or tomorrow it will start to go down, it seems impossible. It still needs to go up first and then it will go down. Because it takes time to change behavior. Because behavior in society has not been seen until now," he explained.

Based on a recent survey by FKM UI, the Eijkman Institute, CDC Indonesia, and the Provincial Government of DKI Jakarta, according to Farid, in June the increase in cases occurred very drastically, especially in the Jakarta area.

Thus, this has had an impact on prevalence estimates carried out in July. After being researched, Farid explained that there was an additional 4.7 percent of cases from April to June 2021. The change in prevalence from 44.5 percent at the end of March 2021 to 49.2 percent at the end of June 2021.

From these results, the FKM UI team tried to project the COVID-19 pandemic in Jakarta to see an estimate for the next 6 months. This projection is carried out using a compartment model approach.

"From the data trend seen in Jakarta, there are actually 2 times that we see important. The first is a very high increase since the beginning of June and even now," said Farid.

While the second, namely in February 2021, there was a very drastic decline.

Based on observations made by UNICEF, 3M's behavior (Wearing masks, Keeping distance, Washing hands) in the community reaches 60 percent. Meanwhile, according to several other surveys, 3M's behavior is currently starting to decline.

So, apart from the presence of a new virus variant, 3M's behavior which was not as high as at the beginning of the pandemic is the reason for the increasing number of COVID-19 cases at this time.

Farid further explained, the data in the last week tended to increase. "The direction of the curve depends on all of us," explained Farid about controlling new cases in the future.

Finally, Farid emphasized that the 3M or 5M behavior (Wearing a mask, Washing hands, Keeping distance, Staying away from crowds, Limiting mobilization and interaction), 3T (Testing, Tracing, and Treatment) plus vaccination is a very important formula to control the current pandemic.

Therefore, the disciplined behavior of the community in complying with the health protocol is highly expected so that the number of COVID-19 cases in Jakarta and other areas decreases.