Prolonged Transitional Season, Something To Do With The Spike In COVID-19?

JAKARTA - In some areas, the transition season period is longer than predicted by the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG). At the same time, COVID-19 cases in Indonesia are going crazy. The question is, is there a connection between the season that is identical to the season of illness and the spike in cases of the new coronavirus?

The transition season or the transition from the rainy season to the dry season is longer than the BMKG predicts. As explained on the BMKG official website, the estimated start of the 2021 dry season in 198 season zones will take place in May and June 2021. That means that if the prediction is correct, the transition period will last until June at the latest.

The prediction was wrong. BMKG's Head of Sub-Division of Climate Analysis and Information Adi Ripaldi agrees that the transition season, especially in the Greater Jakarta area, will be longer. "This dry season is late," Adi told VOI.

Based on BKMG monitoring, until mid-June, only 63 percent of the season zone area had just entered the dry season. "There are still 37 zones that are still experiencing the rainy season. In particular, Jabodetabek, several areas in DKI Jakarta, Tangerang, Bogor are still in the rainy season."

Adi explained that there are at least three reasons why the transition season in Jabodetabek has become longer. First, because the atmospheric waves from the Indian Ocean are still quite massive, they are pushed towards Indonesia.

Second, there is an indication of a low pressure center around the southwest of Sumatra which attracts air masses from the Indian Ocean to Indonesian territory. Third, because the sea surface temperature around the Java Sea is also still warm, the growth of rain clouds is still intense even though it is already June.

"Although the global la nina disturbances have ended, according to Adi, apparently there are regional and local scale disturbances (as described earlier) that have caused the start of the dry season in several season zones in Java to be delayed. So is this a result of climate change?

According to Adi, this phenomenon cannot be directly linked to climate change. He said, this is still a climate variation caused by atmospheric and ocean disturbances.

"And the nature of this disturbance is temporary. When the disturbance stops, we will face the normal dry season where the incidence of rain will decrease or rainfall will be low," said Adi.

Even though it is still too early to link a prolonged transition to climate change, the impacts of climate change are already evident in front of our eyes. One proof is the occurrence of floods. Then is there any impact of climate change on the spread of disease?

The Indonesia Climate Change Trust Fund (ICCTF) once explained this. As the icctf.or.id page explains, climate change can help spread disease in the future. "A warming climate and increasing variability in weather patterns around the world make it easier to transmit disease from any country."

Previously, the World Health Organization (WHO) has tracked and analyzed how climate change impacts public health. For example, in the case of air pollution. This can increase the risk of diseases such as heart and respiratory problems. So is there a connection between climate change and the spike in COVID-19 cases?

To answer this question, VOI contacted an Epidemiologist from Griffith University Australia, Dicky Budiman. And he thinks this has nothing to do with it.

"It has nothing to do with the weather. What is worsening is Java (not just Jabodetabek)," said Dicky.

*Read other information about COVID-19 or other interesting articles from Ramdan Febrian Arifin.