El Nino 2026 Potentially Strong, Java-Bali-NTT Warned to Beware of Drought

YOGYAKARTA - The threat of El Nino 2026 which has the potential to develop into a strong category needs to be watched out for, especially in the Java, Bali, and Nusa Tenggara regions which have monsoon climate characteristics and are prone to longer dry periods.

Lecturer at the Department of Environmental Geography, Gadjah Mada University (UGM), Dr. Emilya Nurjani, said that the impact of El Nino will not be felt uniformly throughout Indonesia. The geographical conditions and climate characteristics of each region also determine the level of vulnerability to drought.

"As for the monsoon-type area, including parts of Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, parts of Sulawesi, and the southern regions of Indonesia. On the other hand, areas with rainfall patterns or equatorial climatology have different characteristics in facing the dry period," said Emilya, Tuesday, August 11.

The warning emerged amid the potential of El Nino 2026 which is estimated to develop with a stronger intensity. The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) even estimates the chance of the phenomenon developing into an extremely strong category of up to 75 percent in the period from August to October.

The risk of drought potentially increases if El Nino occurs simultaneously with the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomenon. Both climate phenomena are equally influential in reducing rainfall in a number of regions in Indonesia.

Emilya explained that the simultaneous appearance of El Nino and positive IOD can strengthen the impact on reduced rainfall.

"These two phenomena have the effect of reducing rainfall in the Indonesian region. When these two phenomena develop simultaneously, the effect can reinforce each other in reducing rainfall in most parts of Indonesia," he explained.

According to Emilya, regions with a monsoon climate character have more distinct rainy and dry seasons. If the dry period lasts longer, the pressure on water availability in the region will increase.

Java, Bali, and Nusa Tenggara are areas that need attention because changes in the duration of the dry season can have a direct impact on water availability and community activities.

However, the level of drought risk is not only determined by the amount of rainfall. Soil conditions, topography, land use, population density, and community dependence on the agricultural sector also affect the level of vulnerability of an area.

Karst areas, said Emilya, have their own challenges in facing long dry periods. Its geological characteristics cause water availability in a number of areas to be more limited than areas with greater groundwater reserves.

"Monsoon and karst areas have an impact on water availability and agriculture if they experience an increase in dry periods," he said.

Pressure on water availability is also potentially increasing in urban areas and intensive agricultural centers that have high water needs. When water reserves decrease, competition for water use for household needs and food production can increase.

Emilya assessed that the government needed to anticipate the chain effects of this condition. Prolonged drought is not only related to weather and climate issues, but can affect the agricultural sector to the basic needs of the community.

Decreased rainfall can reduce irrigation water supply which then has the potential to change the planting calendar, reduce agricultural productivity, and increase the risk of crop failure.

"If this condition lasts for a long time, the problem that was originally related to weather and climate can develop into social, economic, and regional resilience problems," he said.

Therefore, readiness to face the potential of El Nino 2026 needs to be strengthened, especially in areas with high levels of vulnerability. Monitoring climate conditions, water resources management, and agricultural sector adjustments are important steps to reduce the impact of a potentially longer dry period.