Megagempa Nankai Can Damage 2 Million Cars in Japan

JAKARTA - The threat of megagempa Palung Nankai in Japan is not only about casualties and collapsed buildings. The tsunami triggered by the massive earthquake also has the potential to damage more than 2 million private cars.

Kyodo News, quoted Thursday, July 2, reported that the Japan Car Sharing Association estimates that at least 2.04 million private vehicles in 12 prefectures, or provincial-level administrative areas in Japan, could be affected by the tsunami after an 8 or 9 magnitude earthquake in the Nankai Trench, off the Japanese Pacific coast.

That figure is about five times larger than the number of vehicles damaged in the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami in northeastern Japan. The 2011 disaster killed thousands of people and left widespread damage.

The Japan Car Sharing Association is based in Ishinomaki, one of the areas hardest hit in the 2011 disaster. The organization provides free rental vehicles for disaster victims and is now asking for government support to expand its donation-based car service.

Damage estimates are calculated from projections of the number of houses submerged by the tsunami and the level of vehicle ownership. Data is available for 12 of the 30 prefectures that are estimated to be severely affected by the Nankai megamouth. The area includes Kanagawa, Shizuoka, Ehime, Miyazaki, and Aichi.

The Japanese central government has warned that the chances of the Nankai Trench megagempa occurring in the next 30 years are 60 to more than 90 percent. In the worst-case scenario, the disaster could kill about 298,000 people.

Of the 12 prefectures surveyed, Aichi is expected to experience the largest vehicle damage with 394,000 units. Osaka followed with 306,000 units, then Mie with 224,000 units.

According to the association, cars in the area that were submerged by the tsunami could be washed away, damaged, or no longer usable.

The experience of the Noto Peninsula earthquake in 2024 gives an idea of the need. At that time, the Japan Car Sharing Association rented 527 vehicles. Maintenance costs and other needs amounted to around 69 million yen or 424,000 US dollars per year.

If the Nankai megagempa occurs, the need will jump much larger. The association estimates that it will need about 20,000 vehicles and an annual cost of 2.6 billion yen to help residents in 12 prefectures.

Currently, the organization only manages around 600 vehicles. The chairman of the Japan Car Sharing Association, Takehiko Yoshizawa, said that assistance could be difficult to reach all affected areas without public funds and the use of government-owned vehicles.